Emerging Markets Economics Update External positions a concern not just for “BIITS” The currencies of the so-called “BIITS” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa) have been singled out as being particularly vulnerable to a tightening of global monetary conditions. This... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fiscal tightening to weigh on near-term growth in Zambia The fiscal tightening entailed in Zambia's budget for 2014 means that economic growth is likely to slow over the next year or so. Nonetheless, despite the overall cut in expenditure, public investment... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Why South Africa needs a weaker rand The South African rand was one of the hardest hit EM currencies during the summer sell-off and has now fallen by 15% against the US$ since the start of the year. However, as this Watch explains, a... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why BRICs weakness is here to stay The IMF has downgraded its expectations for growth in the BRICS over the next couple of years, bringing its forecasts into line with our own. But while at face value the Fund expects growth to rebound... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: debt ceiling alone won’t solve fiscal problems The IMF is right to argue that fiscal policy in South Africa needs to be tightened over the coming years in order to put public debt on a stable path. But its recommendation that South Africa adopt a... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Continued recovery in EM trade The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth maintained its upward trend in August. Forward-looking indicators point to further gains over the year ahead. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Positive outlook but challenges lie ahead Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to remain one of the world’s fastest-growing regions over the next few years. Domestic demand will remain the key driver of growth. And while several external headwinds... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector bears the brunt of the unrest Tourist arrivals to Egypt have fallen back following the country’s “second revolution” and we estimate that tourist revenues in July and August were $600mn lower than in the same months of last year... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weak growth but no crisis Financial markets have awakened to the vulnerabilities in the emerging world. These are real and will weigh on growth in the years ahead. But we believe that the doomsayers will be proved wrong – an... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Suez revenue is not offsetting broader economic losses The fact that the Egyptian authorities seem determined on keeping the Suez Canal open is clearly a positive for world trade. But it is not enough to offset the weakness in other sectors of the... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Oil production alone won’t solve Ghana’s deficit problems On the face of it, comments yesterday from Ghana’s Finance Minister that oil revenues have been larger than expected this year should ease some concerns over the sustainability of the country’s twin... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies motoring ahead September’s PMI data point to a marked pick-up in activity in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors, supported by an improving external environment. By contrast, the Egyptian economy is showing little sign of... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Q2 GDP data shed light on Egypt’s economic troubles GDP data released over the past few days provide evidence that the Egyptian economy was struggling even before the country’s “second revolution”. Elsewhere, there was better news from Morocco, while... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues, but unevenly Our EM-wide PMI suggests that the recovery in EM manufacturing continued at the end of Q3. However, the improvement is uneven. The rebound was most prominent in Emerging Europe, helped by the... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African PMI falls but still indicates decent growth in Q3 The South African PMI fell back in September but, following strong readings in the previous two months, it is likely that the manufacturing sector recorded decent growth in Q3 as a whole. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
