Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s exchange rate pegs? The non-oil producing MENA countries have historically tended to back up their currency pegs to the US dollar by maintaining a level of FX reserves sufficient to cover the monetary base. But the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update The SARB’s hands are tied The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) left rates on hold today but gave its clearest indication yet that the next move in interest rates will be up. The renewed slump in economic growth means that the... 21st November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi oil boom lifts growth in Q3 The Saudi economy appears to have rebounded in the third quarter of the year. Our GDP tracker points towards growth of around 5% y/y, up from 2.7% y/y in Q2. Most of this improvement has come from the... 20th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stepping back from the EM currency rollercoaster EM currencies have resumed their rollercoaster ride over the past couple of weeks – first weakening on the back of renewed expectations that the Fed might start to taper its asset purchases by the end... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fiscal concerns to prompt rate hikes in Nigeria next year It is fitting that Nigeria’s Budget Proposal for 2014 has been delayed again on a day where the Central Bank has voiced its concerns over fiscal slippage. Low inflation means the Central Bank has... 19th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: non-oil sector continues to drive GDP growth The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q3 was driven by an improvement in the non-oil sector, which has been due in part to continued loose fiscal policy. All of this would seem to strengthen the case... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Public jobs no solution to high MENA unemployment High unemployment rates have grabbed the headlines in the MENA region, not only as a catalyst for the Arab Spring revolutions but also for prompting a backlash against expatriate workers in the region... 18th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trade deficit revisions won’t take rand out of firing line The South African rand rallied yesterday following revisions to the methodology used to compile monthly trade data that resulted in a significant fall in the trade deficit. But the rebound has proved... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Exchange rates to frame EM monetary policy in near term Currency movements will continue to play a major part in determining emerging market (EM) monetary policy. Countries where currencies have weakened alongside large current account deficits - Brazil... 15th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Commodity exporters lag behind in EM export recovery We wouldn't read too much into the slowdown in EM export growth in September. The monthly data are volatile and there are already signs that exports rebounded in October. Nonetheless, EM export growth... 14th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angolan oil boom masks longer-term problems A boom in oil production should ensure that economic growth in Angola remains strong over the next couple of years. But history suggests that it is difficult to sustain strong energy-led growth over a... 13th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit most from a US recovery? A raft of strong activity data from the US suggests that the recovery there is gaining momentum. We expect growth in the US to accelerate further over the coming quarters. The biggest beneficiaries in... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weak South African economy not a major threat to rest of region The ongoing weakness of the South African economy has raised questions over the potential impact on the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. In this Watch, we argue that, due to a variety of factors, trade... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM bank funding carrying more risks We’ve voiced concern about the pace of credit growth in a number of EMs. Worryingly, the composition of banks’ funding appears to have deteriorated at the same time, most notably in Turkey, but also... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests slowdown in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy lost a bit of steam in Q3, with annualised GDP growth slowing to around 2.2% q/q, from 3.0% q/q in Q2. 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Easing food inflation to keep EM inflation pressures subdued Falling global food prices should keep food inflation subdued across much of the emerging world over the coming months. Emerging Europe and Latin America in particular are likely to see significant... 6th November 2013 · 1 min read
