Africa Economics Update South Africa PMI points to manufacturing slowdown in Q1 The South African manufacturing PMI fell back in March and, taking Q1 as a whole, the survey indicates that the sector has been growing by around 1% y/y in the early part of 2014. This is weaker than... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North African economies accelerate, but clouds on the outlook Recently released GDP data showed that growth in the North African economies (Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) picked up modestly in the final quarter of last year. We expect growth to strengthen further... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Effects of China’s slowdown to vary across the region Concerns over the impact on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) of a further slowdown in China have resurfaced over the past couple of weeks. While we do not expect China to experience a hard landing, we do... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA equities continue to outperform Equity markets in the MENA region continue to soar. Dubai’s market has been the region’s best performer since the start of the year, closely followed by that of Egypt, which has been buoyed by... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB pauses for breath Following its surprise hike in January, the recent rally in the rand enabled the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But the bigger picture is that, with South... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRIC economies continue to underperform Growth across the emerging world appears to have remained unchanged at around 4.5% y/y at the start of this year. The recovery in Emerging Europe has faltered, but this was largely due to the weakness... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: modest interest rate hikes on the cards In its first MPC meeting since the suspension of Governor Lamido Sanusi, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.00% today. The case for conventional tightening is building... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s external position still not sustainable An influx of financing from the Gulf since last summer has eased strains in Egypt’s balance of payments and brought the country back from the brink of a crisis. Nonetheless, this situation isn’t... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble The Zambian kwacha has become the latest African currency to come under fire, and has this month slumped to an all-time low against the US$. This follows similar falls in the Ghanaian cedi and... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Regional growth picking up Growth in the MENA region’s major economies appears to have accelerated in recent months. Our GDP tracker points towards a pick-up in growth in the Saudi economy at the start of the year, and timely... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China fears resurface Worries about the impact on other emerging economies of a slowdown in China have risen back to the top of the agenda over the past month. While we do not believe a hard landing is likely, we do expect... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Regional vulnerabilities rising, but differentiation is needed Clouds have gathered over the outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past few months due to growing concerns over widening twin budget and current account deficits and the effects of a slowdown... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s falling gas exports underline need for reform A combination of stagnant production and rapidly increasing domestic consumption means that Egypt is set to become a net importer of natural gas in the near future. Support from the Gulf should help... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria set to be confirmed as Africa’s largest economy The proposed rebasing and revision of historical Nigerian GDP data, due to be released at the end of this month, are likely to show that the country has overtaken South Africa as the region’s largest... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
