Africa Economics Weekly Investment-lull in Nigeria, “disaster” no more in SA? The extreme weakness of FDI into Nigeria last year, shown in data published this week, underscores the scale of the economic challenges facing the new government. Without a marked turnaround in... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook First to hike, first to cut Aggregate EM GDP growth will be much stronger this year than last, but that’s almost entirely a result of China’s reopening rebound. Growth in most other EMs will be weaker and will generally... 4th April 2023 · 27 mins read
Africa Economics Update Activity in Nigeria slumped in Q1 Data suggest that Nigeria’s key oil sector perked up in early-2023, but this was more than offset by weakness in the non-oil economy on the back of bungled demonetisation efforts. And we expect... 4th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Domestic woes to drag down growth Homegrown problems in Sub-Saharan African economies exacerbated by external headwinds are likely to curtail growth this year. We think that regional GDP will expand by 2.3%, which is well below the... 31st March 2023 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s hawks return to driver seat The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) delivered a more-aggressive-than-expected 50bp interest rate hike, to 7.75%, today as hawks returned to the majority with a bang. But while the probability of... 30th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Central banks focus on inflation and currency risks Nigeria’s central bank shrugged off the recent banking sector turmoil and kept its eye firmly focussed on tackling inflation as it hiked interest rates this week and, on balance, we think that... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Update CBN teeing up end of tightening cycle The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) raised the benchmark rate by 50bp, to 18.00%, and appeared to lay the groundwork to draw the tightening cycle to a close. 21st March 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting credit risks Spillovers from the global banking crisis to EMs appear limited so far. Encouragingly, too, most EM banks appear to be well placed to weather a period of rising non-performing loans resulting from... 21st March 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ripples of global banking turmoil in Sub-Saharan Africa Strains in the global banking system have roiled financial markets, but in Sub-Saharan Africa the main impact of the turmoil is likely to feed through via lower commodity prices and tighter external... 17th March 2023 · 8 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Activity Data (Jan.) & Nigeria CPI (Feb.) January’s hard activity figures out of South Africa came in stronger than expected, reducing the chances of a technical recession. But momentum remains extremely weak. Elsewhere, the rise in inflation... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q4) South Africa’s GDP fell by a sharper-than-expected 1.3% q/q in Q4, and the broad-based weakness in economic activity is unlikely to improve any time soon as severe power cuts and fiscal consolidation... 7th March 2023 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Post-election trickle of reforms in Nigeria, SA navy drills The results of Nigeria’s presidential election were quickly challenged by the opposition this week, which is likely to keep investors on tenterhooks. And even once the dust settles, we suspect that... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s elections: no U-turn away from “Buharinomics” Hopes that Nigeria’s elections would usher in a markedly more business-friendly administration were dashed after the ruling party’s Bola Tinubu was declared president-elect. Economic policy under a... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
