Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will... 24th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s election: into the unknown? South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in... 23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased further to 5.2% y/y in April but the Reserve Bank will want to see more evidence that inflation and, crucially, inflation expectations are coming under... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Interest Rate Announcement (May) The Central Bank of Nigeria delivered a larger-than-expected 150bp hike to its policy rate, to 26.25%, at its meeting today, reinforcing Governor Cardoso’s recent comments that officials will “do... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC bets on health insurance bill, Nigeria inflation South African President Ramaphosa's approval of the controversial National Health Insurance bill this week was a clear effort to bolster the ANC’s support ahead of the election. But it also signals... 17th May 2024 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update Rand strength likely to reverse course soon Despite the rand’s recent outperformance, we think risks around the upcoming election in South Africa, among other factors, will cause renewed weakness in the currency before long. In view of wider... 16th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economy on the backfoot ahead of election The latest hard activity data suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted in the first quarter of 2024 and, regardless of the outcome of the upcoming election, this ongoing weakness will put... 15th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2024) Capital flows into EM bonds and equities have fallen to their lowest in six months as investors have pared back expectations for Fed interest rate cuts. However, even with these moves, we remain more... 13th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Stubborn services inflation could slow rate cuts further The persistent strength in core services inflation in some EMs outside Asia raises the chances that central banks cut interest rates by less than the consensus expects this year, not least because it... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update How can South Africa tackle its public debt problem? The South African government has turned to fiscal austerity in an effort to stabilise the public debt ratio and to keep investors on board, but this is likely to become harder to do post-election... 9th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing still going strong The EM manufacturing PMI for April showed that industry continued its strong start to the year through to the beginning of Q2. At a regional level, the narrative was largely unchanged: India remains... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s financing in a fracturing world While Chinese lending to Africa has fallen sharply from its peak last decade, China will remain a big player in the region’s external financing – particularly if some of the foreign exchange generated... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
