Africa Economics Update South African rates left unchanged as Marcus steps down The decision by the South African Reserve Bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.75% today was overshadowed by the announcement that Governor Marcus will step down in November. Whoever assumes... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Less to the narrowing of Egypt’s trade deficit than meets the eye The latest headline trade figures from Egypt suggest that the country’s trade deficit has narrowed sharply over the past year, reducing a key economic vulnerability. However, by taking a closer look... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising US Treasury yields would not slow EM growth Concerns that the policy tightening implied by the latest Fed forecasts would eventually lead to higher US Treasury yields and hinder EM growth are probably misplaced. A handful of EMs arevulnerable... 18th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Towards a more nuanced view on EM rates We are often asked whether the next big move in EM interest rates will be up or down, but in truth the sheer diversity of the economies within the emerging world renders any “one-size-fits-all” rule... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana keeps rates on hold as IMF talks open The Ghanaian authorities’ turn to the IMF and the subsequent rally in the cedi allowed the central bank to keep interest rates on hold today, in spite of above target inflation. Looking ahead, we... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies suffer further loses Emerging market (EM) currencies have had a rough ride recently, adding to what was already shaping up to be a poor year. Our synthetic EM exchange rate index is down by 1.5% against the dollar in the... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Recent EM currency falls partly a result of euro weakness There are good reasons to think that some EM currencies remain exposed to market turbulence as we move towards the first interest rate hike in the US. However, suggestions that the recent falls in EM... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How important is urbanisation for long-run growth? The role of urbanisation in supporting growth in emerging markets is often overplayed. Although urbanisation can play an important role in supporting industrialisation, it doesn’t in itself drive... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Algeria’s economy on an unsustainable path Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s re-election in April seemed to mark a return to business as usual for the economy. However, Algeria’s growth model is looking increasingly unsustainable. If... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banking sector under scrutiny The Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) recent bailout of African Bank has raised concerns over the state of South Africa’s wider financial sector. But as we explain in this Watch, although other smaller banks... 10th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports pick up, but commodity producers lag behind EM export growth picked up in July, continuing the trend seen over the previous four months, and more timely data suggest that it strengthened further last month. However, there is a growing... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s current account woes return in Q2 South Africa’s balance of payments data for Q2 make for grim reading. The current account deficit widened to its largest as a share of GDP since Q3 2013 and, while exports are likely to pick up later... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Risks from spate of USD bond issuances look manageable We think that the risks from the recent glut of foreign currency bond issuances by African governments are, for the most part, manageable. Granted, both Ghana and Zambia have turned to the IMF... 8th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EM vulnerabilities: a stock-take A handful of EMs – mainly in Asia – have taken steps to reduce their external vulnerabilities in the wake of last year’s “Taper Tantrum”. But these countries are the exception rather than the rule... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Interest rate hikes still on the cards in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but the weakness of the shilling and the likelihood of a further rise in inflation mean that rate hikes are... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-focused EM manufacturers are outperforming August’s PMI data from the emerging world were something of a mixed bag. But one theme that stands out is that most export-oriented manufacturing economies are performing relatively well at the moment... 3rd September 2014 · 1 min read
