Africa Economics Update Ghana rate hike more presentational than practical Earlier today, the Bank of Ghana raised its headline policy rate from 19% to 21% – the highest level since January 2004. As it happens, the move was more presentational than practical and is unlikely... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Fragile EM export recovery facing more headwinds EM export growth picked up in September, continuing the sluggish recovery seen since the start of this year. However, the improvement remains concentrated in a handful of EMs, with commodity producers... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Sep.) The jump in the annual growth rate of manufacturing production in September paints a false impression of the sector’s strength. In quarterly terms, output actually contracted in Q3 as a whole. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gets serious about fiscal consolidation South Africa’s Medium Term Budget (MTB), announced last month, received a mixed reception. Government bond yields fell slightly on the day it was announced. But last week, Moody’s downgraded South... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Naira’s decline increases chance of a rate hike The sharp fall in the Nigerian naira today probably reflects reduced intervention by the central bank, and increases the probability that policymakers will raise interest rates later this month. We... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2014) Having slowed sharply in the first half of the year, consumer spending across the emerging world has continued to weaken in recent months. Among the regions, Emerging Asia is the only place where... 6th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export-oriented manufacturers faring well October’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing growth stabilised last month. Some of the smaller, export-driven EMs, particularly those in Central Europe as well as Mexico, areperforming well. But... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Higher interest rates on the horizon in Kenya The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that a pick-up in inflation and concerns about Kenya’s large current account deficit will prompt... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMI gave some encouraging evidence that South Africa’smanufacturers are bouncing back from the weakness earlier in the year. But we doubtthat the sector is about to embark on a... 3rd November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth sinks further on BRICs weakness Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth slowed to a five-year low of 4.1% y/y in August, due in large part to a further downturn in the BRIC economies. Preliminary data suggest that growth may have... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Slower inflation might delay, but not prevent, rate hikes The latest data show a general slowdown in inflation across Sub-Saharan Africa. A variety of factors contributed to this easing, including lower commodity prices and the unwinding of the impact of... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The end of QE and what it means for emerging markets Most of the emerging world should take the end of QE3 in its stride. The link between QE and capital flows to EMs has often been exaggerated. And while some EMs look vulnerable as US rates move up, it... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should help to support EM equities Equities in emerging markets have fared poorly since the end of September, dragging down the price/12m forward earnings ratio in most regions to below its 5-year average, with the exception of Latin... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa outperforms struggling SSA markets Concerns about the strength of the global economy, alongside a number of other factors, have weighed on Africa’s financial markets over the past month. Amid the gloom, South Africa’s markets have been... 27th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US recovery not helping all EMs Although the US economy has emerged as a bright spot of the uneven global recovery, its imports from EM economies have not picked up anywhere near as much as would have been expected based on past... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
