Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing activity still subdued The latest PMI data suggest that manufacturing activity across the emerging world was steady, but still relatively sluggish, at the end of last year. Manufacturers in some of the non-BRIC EMs, such as... 6th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Oil price collapse lowers Russian ruble’s fair value Last week, the Russian finance ministry claimed that the ruble was “extremely undervalued”. Admittedly, it made the claim when the currency was around 70 to the dollar, and the exchange rate has since... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A selection of key calls for 2015 and beyond We expect 2015 to be another year of large divergences in the performances of the advanced economies, with the US and the UK leading the pack and the euro-zone and Japan continuing to struggle. But... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Oil price slide prompts withdrawal from emerging markets Investors’ retreat from emerging markets over the past month has reflected growing concerns about the implications of the collapse in the price of oil. Admittedly, most countries (and the world as a... 23rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Who is most exposed to the debts of oil majors? The fall in oil prices has raised concerns about oil majors’ ability to service debts accumulated during the good times. Risks are concentrated in Latin America, but there is plenty that both... 22nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil price falls won’t let high inflation EMs off the hook Although the recent drop in oil prices will continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in most parts of the emerging world, it won’t provide a lasting solution for the economies with high... 19th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will sustained low oil prices affect EM currencies? The currencies of many emerging economies have sold off recently, due to general US dollar strength and, in some cases, declining oil prices. While our forecast that oil prices will remain low... 18th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Naira and rand in the firing line Currencies in sub-Saharan Africa have continued to come under pressure this month, with both the South African rand and Nigerian naira falling to record lows. The naira has suffered from the further... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack 2015 shaping up to be another lacklustre year The turmoil in Russia and broader weakness in EM financial markets has brought a subdued end to the year. For 2014 as a whole, the latest data point to aggregate GDP growth of less than 5% for the... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Currencies continue to tumble African currencies have struggled again this month, with the South African rand coming under fire due to renewed concerns about the country’s current account deficit. Meanwhile, further falls in oil... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Nov.) Data released over the weekend showed that inflation in Nigeria continued to slow in November. But we expect it to accelerate again before too long as the effect of the naira’s weakness feeds through... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Are EM corporate bonds really that vulnerable? Since the end of October, emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have performed much worse than comparably-rated US corporate bonds. This has been the result of increasing credit spreads... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Falling commodity prices douse the EM export recovery The recent modest recovery in EM exports stalled in October as global growth lost some momentum and sharp falls in commodity prices added to difficulties facing commodity exporters. More timely data... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
