Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker points to acceleration in Q4 GDP growth in South Africa seems to have picked up in Q4 2014, but this acceleration is unlikely to last into 2015. Growth was flattered by base effects and we expect that lasting structural... 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound to fall further as central bank loosens its grip The small fall in the Egyptian pound in the past couple of days is significant given that the central bank had kept a tight grip on the currency since last summer and we think that the pound’s... 19th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks shift to easing mode Having been in tightening mode at the end of 2014, a number of EM central banks have surprised markets by loosening monetary policy since the start of the year, with policymakers in Romania, India... 16th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank becomes latest to cut interest rates In a surprise decision today, Egypt’s central bank (CBE) became the latest in the emerging world to cut interest rates. Although the slide in oil prices is unlikely to have much direct impact on... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Decline in oil prices not a disaster for Nigeria’s public finances The dramatic fall in oil prices since last summer will take a significant chunk out of the Nigerian government’s tax receipts, but we do not think it will be disastrous. Although measures to boost non... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Oil exporters feel the squeeze The value of EM exports fell in annual terms for the first time in almost a year in November as the slide in oil prices dragged on exports from energy producing EMs. The further slump in oil prices... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus In general our forecasts for both EM growth and inflation over 2015-16 are below consensus expectations and for the BRIC economies in particular we are notably more downbeat than the rest of the... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Ghana GDP (Q3) & Kenya Interest Rate Ghana’s GDP growth picked up in Q3, to 5.1% y/y, following a sharp slowdown in Q2. But given the declines in commodity prices, and tight monetary and fiscal policy, we think that the economy will grow... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The decline in December’s manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector ended 2014 on a low point. Although it probably contributed strongly to GDP growth over Q4 as a whole, that looks unlikely to be... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for the Chinese renminbi? Since the end of November, the renminbi has depreciated slightly against the US dollar. However, the real effective exchange rate of China’s currency has continued to appreciate sharply, as the... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing Production (Nov.) November’s fall in South African manufacturing production was perhaps overdue given the strength of output in previous months. The sector is still likely to have contributed positively to GDP growth... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update How damaging have strikes been to South Africa? Strike action in South Africa may have knocked as much as half a percentage point off GDP growth over 2014 as a whole. As long as industrial action does not reach a similar scale this year, growth... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus A bleak future for South Africa’s metals mining sector Precious metals mining in South Africa is in long-term decline and lower prices are undermining profitability. Although the country’s near-monopoly on global platinum and palladium reserves suggests... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What to expect from Nigeria’s election Next month’s general election in Nigeria looks set to be the closest since democracy returned to the country in 1999. There is a clear risk that the outcome leads to a repeat of the violence around... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
