Africa Economics Update Asia Africa Conference irrelevant, but economic ties strengthening This week’s high-profile meeting of African and Asian leaders in Indonesia is unlikely to lead to any concrete measures to boost trade or investment between the two continents. Even so, the crucially... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth sinks as BRICs woes deepen EM growth appears to have sunk to a post-crisis low of around 4% y/y in the first quarter of this year, driven in large part by a deepening downturn in the BRICs. China has grabbed most of the... 23rd April 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? Since the end of Q1, the return from the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has been impressive and eclipsed that from the MSCI World Index of developed market equities. Such outperformance has been a rare... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Mar.) South African inflation picked up slightly in March, to 4.0%, but we expect that a combination of energy prices hikes and a weak rand will increase inflationary pressures going forward. Headline... 22nd April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The implications of a fall in EM dollar GDP There is a good chance that emerging market GDP, measured in dollar terms, will fall this year. But while this will weigh on investors’ dollar-denominated returns and could raise debt burdens in EMs... 21st April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s slowdown ripples across emerging world The effects of slower growth in China are already rippling across the emerging world. Indeed, while China’s economy is still growing by anywhere between 5–7% y/y depending on whose numbers you choose... 20th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI Inflation (Mar.) Nigerian inflation picked up in March, due in large part to the weakness of the naira. While the currency has stabilised in recent weeks, we expect that the effects of its previous sharp depreciation... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export performance remains dire Although EM exports contracted less sharply in February, the improvement was almost entirely down to a surge in China’s exports, which have been distorted by shifts in the timing of Chinese New Year... 16th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African retail sales a positive surprise, but outlook still grim February’s strong South African retail sales data suggest that the economy’s Q1 slowdown was less severe than we had feared. But even so, we expect that weakness in the mining and manufacturing... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Algeria’s economy to hit a crunch point sooner rather than later Algeria is among the most vulnerable economies in the MENA region to lower oil prices and, while large FX savings mean it should be able to muddle through for the next few years, the economy will... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Window for policy loosening starting to close The wave of EM policy loosening that was triggered by the drop in oil prices at the end of last year is now reaching an end. However, it won't be until 2016 that most central banks move into... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African banks’ rising external debt slips under radar The publication of South African Q4 balance of payments data last month grabbed the headlines because of the sharp reduction in the current account deficit, but the worrying rise in banks’ external... 14th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update North Africa: 5-6% growth achievable, but reforms are crucial The outlook for the North African economies of Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia has brightened over the last twelve months and we expect growth to strengthen again this year. Further ahead, low income... 13th April 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Production (Feb.) Data released today show that South African mining and manufacturing production was comparatively strong in February, but we believe that these figures provide a misleadingly optimistic view of the... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of a potential nuclear deal with Iran There are many details that still need to be ironed out, but earlier this month Iran and the West moved another step closer to securing an agreement over Tehran’s nuclear programme. As we explain in... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
