Africa Economics Focus Africa will struggle to capitalise on youthful demographics Sub-Saharan Africa’s youthful demographic profile is often cited as a potential engine of economic development, but we believe that this argument significantly overstates the economic benefits of... 27th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today showing that economic growth in South Africa plummeted to 1.3% quarter on quarter at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate are very bad news. Several temporary factors... 26th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Q1 GDP data confirm EM downturn Most emerging economies have made a weak start to the year. The Q1 GDP data released so far point to a slowdown in aggregate EM economic growth and early activity data for April suggest that this has... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update African markets shrug off weak economic news South Africa’s rand rallied over the past month, despite a string of weak economic data suggesting that growth is slowing and inflation is picking up. Nigeria’s naira held steady, but yields on the... 22nd May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa edges closer to rate hike The decision by South Africa’s MPC to hold the repo rate at 5.75% was accompanied by a statement that clearly paved the way for rate hikes over the coming months. We have pencilled in a 25bp rate hike... 21st May 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices a challenge for key frontier markets Despite a recent rebound, low oil prices are posing a challenge for many frontier markets. Low oilprices were one factor that led the IMF to cut its 2015 growth forecast for Sub-Saharan Africa, andwe... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Retail figures point to weak first quarter for South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector faltered in March, supporting our view that GDP growth in the first quarter was a disappointing 2.0% in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in South Africa rose to 4.5% in April, and we expect that it will continue to rise over the coming months. Accelerating inflation will put pressure on the Reserve Bank to raise interest... 20th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian central bank plays down case for tightening The Nigerian Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to leave its key interest rate at 13% at today’s meeting was not a surprise, but Governor Godwin Emefiele’s comments at the post-meeting press... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports raise questions over global demand Several factors help explain why the dollar value of exports from emerging markets fell sharply in March, including lower commodity prices, the strength of the US dollar and distortions in China’s... 19th May 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack How will EM corporate spreads react to higher US rates? Although underlying Treasury yields have risen since the end of March, dollar-denominated corporate bond yields have fallen in all emerging market regions, owing to a sharp fall in credit spreads. We... 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: poor corn harvest poses little inflation risk 15th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Q1 GDP figures released today, showing that growth in Nigeria slowed to 4.0% y/y, support our view that the economy will perform poorly in 2015. Growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors was subdued... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update In search of winners from China’s rebalancing While it isn’t hard to find EMs that have been hurt by the slowdown in China, identifying winners from the positive aspects of its rebalancing – such as rapid growth in household spending – has proved... 14th May 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2015) The outlook for consumers has remained bright in large parts of the emerging world. In particular, consumption looks set to grow strongly in Central Europe and Emerging Asia over the coming months. In... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: surprise hike probably result of IMF pressure The Bank of Ghana justified its surprise decision to hike its policy interest rate, from 21% to 22%, today by pointing to elevated inflation, although we think that pressure from the IMF also played a... 13th May 2015 · 1 min read
