Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s government wavering on fiscal consolidation Egypt’s public finances are gradually improving, but the recent watering down of tax and spending measures combined with the relatively unambitious targets set out in a recent draft budget has raised... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs can weather Fed lift-off – problems could come later With a Fed rate hike sometime this year now widely anticipated, we suspect that any volatility in EM markets when the Fed finally raises rates should prove short-lived. The much bigger risk for... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Foreign investment into Egypt showing signs of a revival The slowdown in Egypt’s economy since the start of the year has been disappointing, but there are at least encouraging signs that the government’s reform programme is starting to bear fruit. Indeed... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weak EM exports keep concerns over global demand alive Most of the weakness in emerging market exports in recent months can be pinned on the impact of lower commodity prices and the strength of the US dollar. But there are lingering concerns surrounding... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Fed tightening and EMs: risks revisited Yesterday’s statement by US Fed officials suggests that the FOMC is still on course to raise interest rates at September’s meeting. EM financial markets have taken this in their stride today and... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Rising inflation, stronger output suggest rate hike in South Africa Figures released today showed that South Africa’s retail sector has remained surprisingly resilient in the face of power shortages, and rising inflation. A string of relatively strong growth figures... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Cabinet delay raises policy-making concerns President Muhammadu Buhari’s long delay in appointing a new federal cabinet is detracting from his reputation as a decisive reformer and may be a sign of deep divisions within the ruling power. The... 16th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf countries weathering the storm, but growth to weaken The Gulf economies have weathered the storm created by low oil prices relatively well this year, with foreign exchange reserves having been drawn down to sustain spending. Large savings mean that this... 15th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update East African budgets boost investment, keep fiscal deficits wide East African governments’ focus on infrastructure spending will provide a boost for growth, but fiscal deficits in Kenya and Uganda are likely to remain a concern. Revenue projections rely on... 12th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation remains high The Central Bank of Egypt left interest rates unchanged today, but we expect a rate cut later in the year, despite the recent pick-up in inflation. 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.) South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) production fell slightly m/m in April but has returned to pre-strike levels. While this could adversely impact platinum and palladium prices in the short... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Mining & Manufacturing Output (Apr.) Mining and manufacturing output figures released today showed that growth remained weak in two key sectors of the South African economy. And the spectre of wage disputes suggests that the mining... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for EM dollar-denominated sovereign bonds? Emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds have significantly underperformed their local currency counterparts since the end of April. However, this has generally been due to a surge in... 11th June 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Trade agreement promising, but no immediate impact Media coverage of Africa’s “Tripartite Free Trade Agreement” has exaggerated the pact’s effect on economic integration, which will be limited by piecemeal implementation and crumbling infrastructure... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Optimism over opening up of Saudi’s stock market seems overdone The move by Saudi Arabia to open up its stock market to foreign investors from next week is a step in the right direction. But, as we explain in this Watch, we think some of the optimism about its... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 13.1% y/y in May was almost entirely driven a sharp rise in food inflation and, as a result, we don’t expect it to have an impact on the MPC’s rate decision tomorrow... 10th June 2015 · 1 min read
