Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Feb.) The Arab world’s markets have underperformed in January. The exception is Egyptian stocks, which are up by 25% since the beginning of the year. However, we think that Egypt’s recovery is unlikely to... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Jan.) January’s PMI data show that activity in the UAE’s non-oil private sector accelerated modestly. But the bigger picture is that the slowdown in the pace of growth seen in the second half of last year... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Taxation plans in the Gulf are good news, but will take time Given that public finances are vulnerable to swings in oil prices, rumours that Qatar and other Gulf countries are considering Value-Added Tax (VAT) to diversify revenue sources are welcome. Indeed... 31st January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Syria: A prolonged crisis is on the cards The Arab League’s uncharacteristically unified position on Syria last year has quickly reversed. While some countries, led by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), favour a tough stance, others... 25th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets hit by Iran tensions The escalation of tensions with Iran has meant that financial markets in the Gulf have underperformed those in the rest of the emerging world so far this year. While the MSCI emerging market equity... 23rd January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Iran crisis could keep most Gulf markets subdued in 2012 At first glance, the Gulf’s lack of trade links with Iran means that international sanctions will have little impact on most of the oil-rich region’s economies. Indeed, Iran’s threat to block the... 11th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil-importers will have no room for fiscal manoeuvre in 2012 The increase in the costs of food and fuel subsidies, and public sector salaries, has left most oil-importers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with no room to counteract the impact of a... 9th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Dec.) December’s PMI data show that the UAE’s non-oil private sector continued to slow on the back of weaker external demand. Moreover, the data highlight the UAE’s vulnerability to conditions in the global... 4th January 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update GCC summit reveals lack of unity on economic policy Given the political turmoil in the Arab world and growing concerns of a conflict with Iran, it is unsurprising that politics took centre stage at the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) 32nd Summit this... 21st December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Clouds gather over North Africa Successful elections in Tunisia and Morocco, and initially in Egypt, have been overshadowed by a marked deterioration in economic conditions in North Africa. Indeed, Egypt is at a growing risk of a... 20th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus The GCC’s fiscal plans may prove unsustainable This year’s fiscal stimulus packages in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have increased the risk of a spending squeeze in the next 10 to 20 years. Admittedly, enormous foreign currency... 14th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai not yet out of the woods Despite growing concerns, we think that Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs) should be able to service the $3.8 billion in bonds that mature next year. Instead, the more pressing issue is the on... 12th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces’ (SCAF) dithering over securing external financial assistance has left Egypt teetering on the edge of a full-blown economic crisis. The central bank’s... 7th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response UAE HSBC/Markit PMI (Nov) The sharp fall in the PMI’s export component shows the vulnerability of UAE’s non-oil economy to global conditions. 5th December 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the UAE's stimulus Following similar moves in other Gulf countries, the UAE announced an increase of up to 100% in the pay of some public sector workers, as well as the introduction of a $2.7 billion fund to help low... 30th November 2011 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt erupts The past month has been dominated by events in Egypt. Renewed clashes between protestors and the security forces, coupled with the resignation of the interim government, have left parliamentary... 22nd November 2011 · 1 min read
