Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf well insulated from a potential US default News from Washington overnight suggests that the US authorities are edging towards an agreement that would prevent a US default. But even if talks break down, the Gulf economies are probably the best... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s tourism sector bears the brunt of the unrest Tourist arrivals to Egypt have fallen back following the country’s “second revolution” and we estimate that tourist revenues in July and August were $600mn lower than in the same months of last year... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf economies motoring ahead September’s PMI data point to a marked pick-up in activity in the Gulf’s non-oil sectors, supported by an improving external environment. By contrast, the Egyptian economy is showing little sign of... 3rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Should we be concerned about credit growth in the Gulf? Rapid credit growth in the Gulf has fuelled fears that the region is experiencing a credit binge similar to that which culminated in Dubai’s crisis in 2009. But, for now at least, we think that there... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Equity markets rebound on back of Syria deal & Fed decision Equity markets have recovered some of their earlier lost ground as concerns overWestern military intervention in Syria, as well as fears of a tapering of QE3 by theUS Federal Reserve, have eased. 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies gathering pace Growth in the Gulf States appears to have accelerated in recent months. Oil production has surged in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, at least in part as a response to supply disruptions in Libya. And in the... 18th September 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt sinks further into crisis, Gulf’s prospects brightening The outbreak of violence between security forces and protestors this month has sent Egypt spiralling deeper into crisis. It’s extremely tricky to predict how eventswill unfold from here on. In the... 20th August 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt in turmoil (again) Egypt’s “second revolution” has made the outlook for the Arab world’s most populous nation highly uncertain. The economy is already extremely fragile – growth is sluggish, unemployment is high and the... 24th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How sustainable is the Gulf’s fiscal splurge? We’ve argued for some time that the Gulf economies should outperform the rest of the MENA region over the next couple of years, in large part thanks to large increases in government spending. But... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: Weak growth even before the crisis June’s PMIs fell across the whole of the MENA region. But they do not take into account the political unrest that has flared up once again in Egypt and could weigh heavily on the economy over the... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt back in the spotlight Investors have lost even more confidence in Egypt over the past month. The equity market has tumbled and, while this could in part be related to signals by the US Fed that it will begin to taper QE3... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What would the tapering of QE mean for the MENA region? Fears that the US Fed may begin to taper its third round of quantitative easing (QE) have led to a sell-off in emerging market assets over the past few weeks. The MENA region has escaped relatively... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MSCI reclassifications likely to have limited impact Financial markets have reacted positively to the news that MSCI has upgraded Qatar and the UAE to Emerging Market status. But we fear that the eventual benefit may be lower than some seem to expect. 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears of inflation and unrest to frustrate subsidy reform Subsidies are becoming increasingly unaffordable across the poorer parts of the MENA region. But the threat of higher inflation and social unrest is likely to frustrate efforts at subsidy reform. 11th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Youth unemployment likely to have risen further Two and a half years on from the Arab Spring uprisings, youth unemployment in the Middle East, which was a key trigger for the unrest, remains high. In fact, we suspect it may have risen over the past... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Too early to say Egypt’s economy has turned the corner Although Egypt’s headline PMI rose sharply in May to reach its highest level in six months, we would caution against reading this as a sign that the economy has turned the corner. Meanwhile, PMIs for... 3rd June 2013 · 1 min read
