Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s presidential election, GCC debt, Morocco-IMF

Speculation is mounting that Egypt may bring forward its presidential election, which would go some way towards explaining policy paralysis around the pound. If this persists and a de facto peg is...

21st September 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and rates, Morocco quake, new oil f’casts

The further rise in inflation in August means that the Central Bank of Egypt will probably raise interest rates again next week, but investors (and the IMF) will be paying more attention to any news...

14th September 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug. 2023)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 2.3% y/y in July to 2.0% y/y in August, the weakest pace of inflation in over a year and we think it will ease further heading into 2024.

14th September 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi oil output cut, another delay to Egypt’s IMF review?

Saudi Arabia announced it will roll over its additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut until the end of the year, which we think will push the economy into a sharp contraction over the second half...

7th September 2023 · 9 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Aug. 23)

August’s batch of PMIs for the region showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf eased, but that activity remained strong. In contrast, Egypt’s PMI remained below the 50-mark and the...

5th September 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

SAMA drawdown, Saudi real estate, Egypt industry plans

The drop in the Saudi central bank’s foreign assets to a 14-year low in July caused some concern this week, but we suspect this reflects funds being recycled to the Public Investment Fund rather than...

31st August 2023 · 6 mins read

Asset Allocation Update

We think EMEA equities will continue to be a mixed bag

Equities in Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) have returned little in US$ terms so far this year. While they may fare better next year, we doubt they’ll outperform the wider emerging equity...

29th August 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

BRICS Summit, Morocco’s policymaking

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt were among six countries to be invited to join the BRICS bloc, which could solidify the shift in their geopolitical alignment towards a China-led bloc . This could...

24th August 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. 2023)

Oil output cuts are driving a sharp slowdown in economic growth across the Gulf. The hit to volumes will more than offset the rebound in oil prices but, for now at least, fiscal policy is being kept...

21st August 2023 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s fiscal position, destination Dubai, Gulf inflation

Egypt’s government debt-to-GDP ratio jumped to 96% in FY2022/23, one of the largest ratios in the emerging world, but there remain reasons to think that the government will be able to avoid a...

17th August 2023 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. 2023)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate eased from 2.7% y/y in June to 2.3% y/y in July, the slowest outturn since the middle of last year and we think the headline rate will continue to edge lower...

15th August 2023 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s recession deepens

Oil output cuts fuelled Saudi Arabia’s economic downturn in the first half of 2023 and the drag from the oil sector appears to have intensified more recently. Taking together with signs that activity...

14th August 2023 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Aramco profit slump, Egypt back on the orthodox train?

The slump in the profits of Saudi Arabia’s state oil company, Aramco, in Q2 has focussed attention on the deterioration in the Kingdom’s budget position. But the authorities appear to be taking as...

10th August 2023 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tightening oil market; Myanmar’s tin mining ban

It’s been a mixed week for commodity prices. Industrial metals price generally struggled as activity surveys for China paint a grim picture of demand. (See Chart 1.) We suspect prices will tread water...

4th August 2023 · 4 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Record SAIBOR, Egypt FX crunch, Saudi extends oil cut

The Saudi Arabian interbank rate hit its highest level in over two decades and, with credit growth in the Kingdom slowing, pressure is likely to mount on the Saudi Central Bank to intervene and inject...

3rd August 2023 · 7 mins read