Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How credible are the region’s currency pegs? Persistent balance of payments strains brought pressure on some of the region’s non-oil producing countries who employ fixed exchange rate regimes. FX reserves have been depleted to support currencies... 9th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: That Xi-Biden meet in context – How fracturing is reshaping the global outlook 1700139600 The splintering of the world economy into competing US and China-aligned blocs is dominating the macro and financial and commodities markets outlook.
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Where does Saudi Arabia sit in a fracturing world? The past few years have seen Saudi Arabia continue to move away from the US orbit and, as part of our work on global fracturing, we no longer consider Saudi to be unaligned between the US and China... 7th November 2023 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s gas sector, Saudi budget, another MENA World Cup Egyptian officials confirmed this week that imports of gas fell to zero after Israel turned off the taps, which will curtail efforts to restart LNG exports. And with gas being cut to energy-intensive... 2nd November 2023 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 2023, Flash Estimate) Saudi Arabia’s flash GDP estimate showed that the recession deepened in Q3, with GDP contracting by 3.9% q/q, after the Kingdom implemented an additional voluntary 1mn bpd oil output cut and the non... 31st October 2023 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi Arabia real estate, Gulf deposits in Egypt Saudi Arabia’s mortgage market continues to struggle and, together with increased residential real estate supply in the Kingdom, is likely to keep property prices subdued for some time. Elsewhere... 26th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 24th October 2023 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Israel-Hamas and Egypt, Qatar LNG, Saudi inflation Reports over the past week suggest that Egypt may be trying to leverage its role in the Israel-Gaza conflict to receive financial support. However, this would not address the fundamental issues behind... 19th October 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi set for weakest GDP growth in the Gulf this year Saudi Arabia’s economy is in a recession and, with oil output cuts extended until the end of this year at least, GDP will contract further. We think that the economy will shrink by 1.3% this year... 16th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly How will the Israel-Gaza conflict affect the rest of MENA? The outbreak of conflict between Hamas and Israel this week has not yet spilled over into the wider Middle East and North Africa. But the situation is in flux and, if Iran were to be pulled into the... 12th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election and UAE swap line, OPEC+, Saudi labour Egypt’s upcoming election in December has led to policy paralysis, particularly around the exchange rate. The currency swap line opened with the UAE this week appears aimed at bolstering resources to... 5th October 2023 · 8 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Tectonic shifts in the Saudi labour market Saudi Arabia’s labour market has strengthened markedly in its post-pandemic recovery and the headline figures mask a dramatic shift in the size and composition of the labour force. In particular... 4th October 2023 · 13 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Sep. 23) The September release of PMIs for the Middle East and North Africa showed that activity in non-oil private sectors in the Gulf economies remained strong up at the end of Q3, and this is likely to... 3rd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi pre-budget statement maintains loose fiscal stance Saudi Arabia’s 2024 pre-Budget statement reaffirmed the government’s commitment to sustaining its loose fiscal stance, with the government now projecting budget deficits all the way out to 2026. That... 2nd October 2023 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt election, Dubai debts, CE Spotlight The confirmation that Egypt’s presidential election has been moved forward to December is likely to keep the policy shift toward economic orthodoxy on pause for the time being. Our best guess now is... 28th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 23) After a sharp slowdown this year, GDP growth across the Middle East and North Africa will improve in 2024 as OPEC+ starts to raise its output quotas and high oil prices allow the Gulf economies to... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
