Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Oil-poor countries could still outperform in the long term The economic prospects for some of the resource-poor Arab countries are brighter than their current conditions suggest. Although political transitions are proving difficult, we still think that they... 28th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (Jun.) The escalation in the euro-zone crisis and recent falls in the oil price have weighed heavily on the Arab region’s equity markets over the past month. Indeed, even if Dubai and Qatar are upgraded to... 14th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf are well placed to weather the storm One of the main channels through which the euro-zone debt crisis could affect the oil-rich Gulf economies is via a drop in foreign capital inflows due to heightened global risk aversion. In particular... 13th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Euro crisis clouds the outlook The combination of a deep recession in the euro-zone and the Arab world’s own political turmoil will act as a drag on the region’s economies in the near term. The North African countries are likely to... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will troubles in the euro-zone affect the Arab region? The primary channels through which a recession in the euro-zone will impact the Arab region are a deterioration in world trade, lower remittances, a drop in capital flows and falls in commodity prices... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy disappoints in Q1 The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s annual GDP growth rate from a 6.6% y/y in Q4 2011 to 5.9% y/y in Q1 2012 suggests that last year’s record performance in the non-oil sector is unsustainable. 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia’s economy is set to slow this year Our new Saudi Arabian whole-economy activity proxy suggests that GDP grew by around 7% y/y in the first quarter of this year, maintaining the record pace of growth in 2011. However, the combination of... 29th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s elections add to vulnerabilities Early results from the first round of Egypt’s presidential election appear to have polarised society, pitting Islamists against secularists, and revolutionaries against the old guard. The outcome... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Early signs of overheating in Saudi Arabia A huge fiscal stimulus by the Saudi government ensured that the country avoided the unrest that swept the region last year and drove growth rates in the non-oil economy to record highs. However, the... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Middle East Markets Monitor (May) Fresh hopes that some equity markets in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) had turned a corner at the start of 2012 have quickly faded. Instead, attention has turned to Islamic bond markets... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growing risk of fiscal crises in the oil-poor Arab countries One of the most striking – and often overlooked – developments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) following the Arab Spring has been the stark divergence in the fiscal health of the region’s... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack G7 to the rescue? The recent announcement by the G7’s Deauville Partnership that it will soon deliver on its earlier promise of a $20 billion ‘Arab Spring’ package to Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Jordan, could... 24th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Europe’s deleveraging to increase pressure on Gulf businesses Ample liquidity coupled with a decreasing reliance on foreign funding mean that most banks in the Gulf are well-placed to weather any storm in the euro-zone’s financial system. But deleveraging in... 19th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Downside risks to Saudi equities are high By most measures, Saudi stocks appear to be undervalued by up to 30%. Recent earnings data have also beaten analysts’ estimates and expectations for profit growth are strong leading many to suggest... 18th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Markets Monitor (Apr.) Consistent with trends in other emerging markets, most of the Middle East’s stock markets have dropped back from the highs reached earlier this year. While Egypt’s fall is perhaps the most striking... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does our new oil price forecast mean for the Gulf? On the back of a brighter outlook for the US economy and concerns over supply, we have nudged up our forecast for Brent crude prices to end the year at $95 per barrel ($85pb previously). Although this... 11th April 2012 · 1 min read
