Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Feb. 2024)

February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be...

5th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Feb. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

26th February 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Israel-Hamas spillovers weigh on non-Gulf economies

The main spillover to the global economy, so far, from the Israel-Hamas conflict has been major disruptions to shipping, but there has been a bigger and broader economic impact in the MENA region...

20th February 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi public finances and fiscal outlook, Egypt-IMF latest

Figures published this week confirmed that Saudi Arabia ran a budget deficit over 2023 and we expect another deficit this year. While the government shouldn’t struggle to finance this, if oil prices...

15th February 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan. 24)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged up from a two-year low of 1.5% y/y in December to 1.6% y/y in January, but we expect that inflation will ease again in the coming months and remain low...

15th February 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia: downturn over, but a slow recovery in 2024

Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by 0.9% over the course of 2023 on the back of the Kingdom’s oil output cuts. But the recession ended in Q4 and we think that a gradual recovery will ensue over 2024...

7th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

PMIs: Gulf a bright spot, Israel-Hamas war weighs on Egypt

January’s batch of PMIs showed that activity across non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf eased a touch at the start of the year, but activity remains robust and will support the broader economic...

5th February 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Aramco’s plans, Jordan and regional conflict, Tunisia’s crisis

Saudi Arabia’s government this week directed the state oil giant Aramco to suspend plans to raise oil production capacity, but this won’t necessarily stop Aramco from ramping up actual output in the...

1st February 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Flash GDP (Q4 2023)

The flash estimate of Saudi Arabia’s GDP for Q4 of last year showed that the economy expanded by 0.4% q/q, the first positive outturn since the period a year before. We expect the recovery to continue...

31st January 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

Our Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little...

30th January 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Will Saudi shift tack on oil policy?

Saudi Arabia has cut oil output significantly over the past year or so but that hasn’t prevented global oil prices from falling. Despite Aramco’s announcement today that it is postponing plans to...

30th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt and the IMF, Red Sea disruptions and the Gulf

IMF officials have been in Egypt this week to discuss a new financing package and, while no news has emerged yet, the accelerating depreciation of the pound on the parallel market underscores Egypt’s...

25th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Could Saudi live with a sustained fall in oil prices?

Saudi Arabia’s government returned to running budget deficits last year and is likely to continue doing so. But these should be easily financed. Oil prices would probably have to fall sharply, to...

23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s crisis worsening, Saudi-BRICS membership

The past week brought further evidence that strains in Egypt’s balance of payments are ratcheting up, underscoring the need to get the mooted enhanced IMF deal over the line. Elsewhere, the statement...

18th January 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec. 23)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate slowed from 1.7% y/y in November to 1.5% y/y in December, the weakest pace recorded since January 2022. And we expect inflation to continue to ease at the start...

15th January 2024 · 2 mins read