Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy won’t collapse but growth will soften in 2015-16 Concerns that the plunge in oil prices will push the Saudi economy into a deep recession this year look overdone. We expect growth to slow this year and next, but a collapse in output looks unlikely. 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) The slowdown in Saudi GDP growth in Q4, to just 2.0% y/y, provides the first evidence that the plunge in oil prices has caused growth to soften. But so far, there are no signs of a collapse in output. 20th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate fell to an eight-year low of 2.4% y/y in December. But we suspect that the big fall in inflation is now behind us and the headline rate may even edge up over the coming... 15th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy ended last year on a weaker note Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in the Saudi economy eased towards the end of last year, but there aren’t any signs that the plunge in oil prices has caused activity to collapse. Looking ahead... 14th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2015 budget suggests authorities calm about oil price fall Saudi Arabia’s 2015 budget statement doesn’t provide a clear steer about the path for actual government spending. Reading between the lines, it looks like the authorities will keep spending restrained... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The fall in Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate in November to a two-and-a-half year low probably marks the trough and we expect it to rise gradually to 3.0-3.5% over the coming year. 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Banks in the Gulf well placed to weather low oil prices The slump in oil prices has caused concerns to emerge about the exposure of financial institutions to energy companies, but for banks in the Gulf this risk seems small. They are more vulnerable to a... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A soft start for Saudi Arabia’s economy in Q4 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy started Q4 on a slightly weaker note. We don’t think that the latest fall in oil prices will cause growth to collapse but with fiscal policy set to... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf set to resist pressure to cut oil output Comments ahead of today’s OPEC meeting, playing down calls for a cut in the cartel’s output target, suggest that the Gulf States aren’t too alarmed by the recent slide in oil prices. Indeed, Saudi... 27th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector a drag on Saudi economy in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3. The oil sector was a drag on the economy, but this was offset by stronger growth in the non-oil sector. Going forward... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Saudi Arabia respond to the fall in oil prices? Saudi Arabia is likely to resist pressure from other OPEC members to cut oil output in an effort to arrest the recent slide in prices. After all, the Saudi economy is in a stronger position to... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf dollar pegs under little threat from lower oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices in recent months has led some to call into question the sustainability of the Gulf’s dollar pegs. However, we think the risk of currency devaluation is relatively small. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The fall in Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate in October suggests that, for now at least, price pressures in the economy are limited. 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s migrant crackdown – one year on It’s been a year since the Saudi Arabian authorities launched a crackdown on illegal migrants working in the Kingdom. In this Watch, we assess what impact that the crackdown, as well as the government... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Oct.) September’s Brazilian industrial production data suggest that the sector remained a drag on the overall economy in the third quarter and, with both domestic and external demand set to remain weak, it... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read