Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Mohammed bin Salman fleshes out Saudi Arabia’s economic plans In an interview with The Economist published earlier today, Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (or MbS, as he is known locally) outlined encouragingly ambitious fiscal and reform... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia chooses fiscal squeeze rather than devaluation The fresh drop in oil prices has once again prompted speculation that Saudi Arabia will follow other major oil producers and devalue its currency. But we think this will only be used as a last resort... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia & UAE Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) The drop in ‘whole economy’ PMIs from the Gulf countries in December, in the case of Saudi Arabia to a fresh record low, provides further evidence that non-oil sectors are starting to feel the pinch... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3) The slowdown in Saudi GDP growth in the third quarter of last year, to 3.6% y/y, is a sign of things to come. With the recent budget confirming that a period of fiscal consolidation is now underway... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth eases, further slowdown likely in 2016 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi Arabian economy weakened a little in October and, with fiscal policy set to tighten, we expect much slower growth in 2016. 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The slight fall in Saudi inflation in November, to 2.3% y/y, reinforces our view that the backdrop of weak global commodity prices and slowing growth should keep price pressures subdued over the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Little incentive for Saudi Arabia to abandon oil strategy Last week’s OPEC meeting ended with little change to the cartel’s policy, but rumours suggest that Saudi Arabia is softening its stance on production cuts. While we’re probably at the point where the... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Hopes of Saudi led shift in OPEC policy to be disappointed The next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on 4 th December, is set to be much more interesting than the one in June. Indonesia will re-join the group for the... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian equities drop, yields rise as external concerns resurface Renewed concerns over Egypt’s external position, coupled with fresh security fears in light of the Russian plane crash in the Sinai, have caused the country’s equity market to slump and dollar bond... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation likely to be a last resort Speculation over a devaluation of the Saudi riyal has mounted in the past few days but we think such a move is likely to be used as a last resort. Instead, we think cuts to capital spending are likely... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s economy shifts down a gear Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply in September. With a fiscal squeeze expected to get underway soon, this is likely to be a sign of things to come over the next... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi privatisations add to reasons for slow policy adjustment The Saudi government appears to be moving towards privatising a number of state-owned companies which, although not a game changer when it comes to financing the budget deficit, adds to the reasons to... 12th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation edged up for the second consecutive month in October, to 2.4% y/y, a fresh high for this year. Even so, low global commodity prices and slower economic growth should keep price... 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia turns to international bond markets to plug shortfall Reports that Saudi Arabia will launch an international bond provides some clarity on how the budget deficit will be financed over the next year – as things stand, we think around 65% will come from... 10th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending to weaken further as fiscal squeeze bites Despite recent media reports espousing the resilience of Saudi consumers in the face of lower oil prices, a number of indicators suggest that household spending in the Kingdom has softened in recent... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downgrade puts poor fiscal position in the spotlight The decision by Standard & Poor’s to downgrade Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating on Friday night is hardly surprising in light of the deterioration in the fiscal position this year and lack of a... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
