Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf’s non-oil sectors show signs of recovery The latest activity data suggest that non-oil sectors in the two largest Gulf economies, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are starting to recover from their slumps in early 2016. Both countries have been... 20th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: OPEC deal a short-term gain, but unlikely to be renewed The sharp rise in oil prices means that, despite implementing a larger-than-pledged oil output cut, Saudi Arabia has been a big beneficiary from the recent OPEC agreement. But with compliance likely... 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Decline in Saudi interbank rates to reverse course soon The recent decline in Saudi interbank rates reflects fading fears that the riyal will be devalued and easing liquidity shortages in the banking system. We still expect Saudi interbank rates to rise... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi inflation fell further at the end of last year as the decline in food prices steepened. Inflation is likely to ease a little further in the first few months of 2017, but fresh subsidy cuts will... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy picking up at end of 2016, but set to slow in 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy was on an improving trends towards the end of last year. But we expect growth to be slower this year compared with 2016 as weakness in the oil sector... 19th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi balance of payments position to continue to improve The latest data show that Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments position improved markedly towards the end of 2016 and, with oil prices likely to grind higher this year, this trend looks set to continue... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can the Gulf’s currency pegs withstand a stronger dollar? The appreciation of the US dollar since the end of last year has prompted renewed concerns over the sustainability of currency pegs in the Gulf, but we think these fears are overdone. Oil prices are... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth to slow as weaker oil sector offsets non-oil recovery Saudi Arabia’s economy is likely to grow at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis this year. However, this will largely reflect weakness in the oil sector. In contrast, with austerity... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi austerity to resume in 2018, but won’t be as harsh as 2015-16 Saudi Arabia’s recent budget suggested that fiscal consolidation will take a breather this year and, while the “Fiscal Balance Program” points to austerity resuming from 2018, it is likely to be less... 5th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Dec.) December’s batch of PMI data suggest that the Gulf economies ended 2016 on a brighter note, supported by a boost sentiment from higher oil prices and signs that the worst of the drag from fiscal... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2017 Budget: austerity takes a breather Saudi Arabia’s budget suggests that, following a significant improvement in the public finances over the past couple of years, the fiscal stance will be broadly neutral in 2017. This supports our view... 22nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics OPEC deal boosts financial markets in frontier oil exporters Financial markets in frontier oil exporters have performed well over the past month, as oil prices have rallied following the OPEC deal to cut output. Equity markets have perked up. And spreads of... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2017 budget Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister, Mohammed al-Jadaan, will deliver his maiden budget later this month, which is likely to reinforce the government’s commitment to tighter fiscal policy in order to... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation fell to 2.3% y/y in November, its lowest rate this year. We expect inflation to settle at 2.0-2.5% in 2017, compared with an average of around 3.5% this year, which should support a... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices The rise in oil prices following the recent OPEC deal to cut output has supported financial markets across the Gulf over the past month. Stock markets have perked up and spreads of dollar bonds over... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Reasons to remain sceptical of “major shift” in Saudi oil policy The recent agreement reached by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has prompted speculation of a major shift in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy, but we remain cautious. After all, the Kingdom has... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
