Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy probably contracted in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy is suffering heavily under the weight of fiscal austerity, with output contracting by around 2% y/y as of May. IMF and consensus expectations for... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices hitting home Oil prices have been low for some time now, but the past month has brought further evidence that this new reality is starting to hit home in energy-exporting frontier markets. Recently-released data... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s current account position deteriorated at the start of this year due to lower oil prices, but even taking this into account the underlying balance of payments position improved. We... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Hard evidence points to weakness in Saudi economy The relative strength of the PMI readings from Saudi Arabia have prompted some to argue that the economy is holding up well. However, our GDP Tracker suggests that the economy is struggling and we... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1) Data released over the weekend, showing that Saudi GDP growth slowed in Q1 (particularly in the non-oil private sector), highlights the impact that fiscal austerity is already having on the economy... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf equity markets stumble, despite oil rally Equity markets across the Gulf have struggled over the past month, in spite of a further recovery in oil prices. At the same time, speculation has increased that Saudi Arabia will devalue the riyal... 30th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort In spite of the backdrop of the recent recovery in oil prices, which broke through US$50pb today for the first time this year, speculation has mounted that Saudi Arabia will devalue its currency. We... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi reshuffle unlikely to result in drastic change The government reshuffle in Saudi Arabia announced over the weekend is unlikely to herald a major shift in economic policy, although it may strengthen the Kingdom’s commitment to its oil market... 9th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further signs that the Saudi economy is struggling Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy continued to slow sharply at the start of this year, with the non-oil sector suffering under the weight of fiscal austerity. The risks to our long... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained elevated at 4.3% y/y in March due to the electricity and water tariff hikes earlier in the year and, more recently, last month’s hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy feeling the strains of austerity Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed sharply at the start of this year as the impact of fiscal austerity weighed heavily on the non-oil sector. Meanwhile, today’s decision by... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) Data released today confirmed that Saudi GDP growth held steady at 3.6% y/y in the final quarter of last year but we think the economy will slow sharply this year and even further in 2017. 4th April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Prince’s comments don’t indicate major change Comments today by Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in an interview with Bloomberg confirm our view that Saudi policymakers are comfortable with a period of low oil prices. What’s... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation eased in February to 4.2% y/y, although it remained high due to the impact of recent administered price rises. But with economic growth slowing, we think underlying price pressures... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on Saudi comments and US blizzard After another poor start, the prices of industrial commodities ended the week on the up. The main positives were hints of additional monetary policy support from the ECB and the absence of any more... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi growth steady in Q4, but set to slow sharply this year Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy was broadly stable between October and November but, with a fiscal squeeze underway, growth looks set to weaken this year. We remain... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
