Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Saudi inflation stood in negative territory for a third consecutive month in March, but we continue to think a long and damaging bout of deflation should be avoided. 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf: improving budget positions to allow austerity to ease Budget positions across the Gulf should improve over the next couple of years – and many will return to surplus – supported in large part by higher oil prices. As a result, governments across the... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How big is the threat of deflation in the Gulf? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory following a period of weak growth has raised broader concerns about the threat of deflation in the Gulf. Our core inflation measures for the... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q4) Saudi Arabia’s economy picked up in the final quarter of 2016, supported by stronger growth in both the oil and non-oil sectors. Cuts to oil output on the back of the OPEC deal will trim headline... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Recent dip in oil prices not a major concern for the Gulf The recent drop in oil prices, from around US$56pb at the start of March to just over US$51pb at present, is unlikely to be a major cause for alarm in the Gulf. For one thing, oil prices are still... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: what to make of Aramco’s tax cut Today’s decision by the Saudi authorities to lower the tax rate applied to Aramco is unlikely to have any impact on the Kingdom’s day-to-day public finances. Instead, it simply reflects a shift in the... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy slows on back of oil output cuts Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed at the start of this year, which was entirely due to oil production cuts. There has been better news on the non-oil economy, where easing... 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fresh Saudi devaluation fears look wide of the mark The recent dip in oil prices has raised concerns in some quarters that the Saudi authorities may devalue the riyal, but we find this highly unlikely. Indeed, the probability that the dollar peg will... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation was in negative territory for a second consecutive month in February, but there are signs that deflation may not last much longer. 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending continues to struggle Household consumption in Saudi Arabia slowed sharply last year in the face of fiscal austerity and, while low-level indicators suggest that the worst may now be over, there’s little sign of a strong... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf growth to be trimmed by oil output cuts Headline GDP growth in the Gulf looks is likely to slow to an eight-year low of 1.5% in 2017. However, this will be entirely the result of oil production cuts as countries comply with last year’s OPEC... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia softening opposition to OPEC deal extension Saudi Arabia has continued to comply with its side of November’s OPEC agreement and recent comments from policymakers suggest that the Kingdom’s opposition to extending the deal beyond June is easing... 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the Saudi credit slowdown? The sharp slowdown in credit growth in Saudi Arabia is likely to reach a trough soon. However, as we explain in this Watch, a weak economic outlook and higher interest rates mean that lending growth... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stronger in Q4, consensus too bearish on 2017 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy strengthened in the final quarter of 2016 as the drag from fiscal austerity eased. Headline GDP growth is likely to slow sharply in the first half of... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: should we be concerned about deflation? The recent dip in Saudi inflation into negative territory has raised concerns in some quarters that the country could be at risk of a long and damaging period of deflation. There are good reasons to... 2nd March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia fell in year-on-year terms in January as food prices continued to decline at a steep pace and the effects of last year’s subsidy cuts dropped out of the annual... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
