Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation dropped to its lowest rate this year in September as food prices fell at a steeper pace and the effect of administered price hikes earlier this year continued to fade. We expect... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks should continue to weather economic headwinds Banks in Saudi Arabia have coped well so far with the fallout from lower oil prices and we think the sector is in a strong position to confront the ongoing economic headwinds over the coming years. 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s international bond sale Saudi Arabia’s record-breaking US$17.5bn sale of international bonds will finance around a third of next year’s budget deficit and almost all of the current account shortfall, so the Kingdom’s foreign... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia to ease pace of austerity in 2017-18 Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond issuance and the recent OPEC agreement have put the spotlight back on to the country’s adjustment to low oil prices. One point that is often overlooked is... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC production ramps up as Nigeria and Libya return OPEC production rose in September as Libya and Nigeria ramped up exports. Saudi Arabia’s output did fall, but this is likely to be a seasonal effect rather than a policy shift. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stabilises Saudi Arabia’s economy didn’t perform as badly as we had feared in Q2 and our GDP Tracker suggests that things have stabilised at the start of Q3. That said, more timely data and recent policy... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strong Saudi Q2 GDP data could be revised down The 1.4% y/y Q2 GDP growth in Saudi Arabia reported by the local statistics authority was significantly stronger than we had expected. But we find this difficult to square with the weaker low-profile... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: first thoughts on the implications of the OPEC deal Last night’s OPEC deal to cut output is short on details, although our sense is that it’s unlikely to be a game-changer for Saudi Arabia, even if it shoulders most of the burden of the fall in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) The sharp fall in Saudi inflation in August was driven by a drop in food inflation, although there were signs that the weakness of the economy is curtailing underlying price pressures. We expect... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond sale has sparked a lot of investor interest and we estimate that the Kingdom will manage to sell its 10-year debt for a relatively low yield of 3.50-3.75%... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will economic pain prompt a shift in Saudi oil policy? The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy has prompted the authorities to soften their opposition to a deal to freeze oil output. While a deal is more likely than it was earlier this year, there are... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: revisiting the hit from lower oil prices Saudi Arabia’s upcoming Eurobond issuance has thrust the country’s finances back under the spotlight. Overall, the hit from lower oil prices has been significant – annual oil export revenues are down... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil The statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier today that the two countries have agreed to work together to try to stabilise the oil market did very little to justify the almost 6% surge in oil... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Slump in Saudi economy deepens Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slump in Saudi Arabia’s economy has deepened, with output falling by more than 2% y/y in June. A recovery is likely to get underway over the rest of this year and in... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi inflation edged down in July to its lowest rate this year, at 3.8% y/y, and further ahead the weakness of economic activity means that headline inflation will fall further over the next twelve... 22nd August 2016 · 1 min read
