Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Saudi inflation fell to 2.3% y/y in November, its lowest rate this year. We expect inflation to settle at 2.0-2.5% in 2017, compared with an average of around 3.5% this year, which should support a... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf financial markets find support from higher oil prices The rise in oil prices following the recent OPEC deal to cut output has supported financial markets across the Gulf over the past month. Stock markets have perked up and spreads of dollar bonds over... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Reasons to remain sceptical of “major shift” in Saudi oil policy The recent agreement reached by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has prompted speculation of a major shift in Saudi Arabia’s oil policy, but we remain cautious. After all, the Kingdom has... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy holds steady in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy stabilised in Q3 and was on an improving trend towards the end of the quarter, supported by stronger growth in the oil sector. 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Nov.) The small drop in Egypt’s PMI last month suggests that the economy hasn’t deteriorated significantly following the pound’s float and subsequent 50% fall against the US dollar. But with inflation set... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon Interbank interest rates in Saudi Arabia have edged down over the past month as investor sentiment towards the Kingdom has improved and policy moves have helped to ease liquidity constraints at banks... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s pound float: short-term pain, long-term gain The 50% fall in the Egyptian pound against the US dollar since the central bank floated the currency at the start of November will cause economic growth to slow sharply in the coming quarters... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update President Trump and the implications for the Middle East Two weeks on from Donald Trump’s victory in the US Presidential election and we’re starting to get a sense of the likely shape and priorities of his administration. The inherent contradictions in Mr... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Saudi Arabia unlikely to take strong action to boost oil prices The oil cartel, OPEC, is likely to reach some sort of face-saving deal to cut oil output at its meeting next week, but we think claims that Saudi Arabia has abandoned its strategy of protecting its... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation eased for a fourth consecutive month in October, recording its lowest rate this year as food prices fell at a steeper pace and the effect of administered price hikes continued to fade. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector supports stabilisation of Saudi economy The latest figures from our Saudi GDP Tracker suggest that the Kingdom’s economy stabilised in Q3, supported by stronger growth in the oil sector. Some more timely indicators have raised fresh... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi finance minister’s departure won’t mark end of austerity The decision to replace Saudi Arabia’s finance minister is unlikely to mark a shift in the Kingdom’s approach to dealing with the fallout from lower oil prices. While the outgoing finance minister had... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Saudi devaluation fears fade, African oil currencies struggle Saudi Arabia’s successful international bond sale earlier this month has eased concerns about the sustainability of its currency peg, but exchange rates in other frontier oil exporters remain in the... 31st October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Would an OPEC production cut make a difference? The prospect of the first OPEC production cut since 2009 has sent oil prices back above $50 per barrel, although they have slipped a bit recently as the potential deal shows signs of unravelling... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar bond yields edge down following bumper sale The past month has been dominated by Saudi Arabia’s inaugural international bond sale and, in the first few days of trading, yields on the bonds have edged down in line with those in the rest of the... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
