Commodities Watch The shifting nature of US-Saudi oil relations There has been much commentary in recent months on the balance of power in relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. Many of the areas of mutual interest are geopolitical in nature and we are not... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi Arabia re-entered deflation at the start of 2019 as we had anticipated, with consumer prices falling by 1.9% y/y in January. A fresh round of subsidy cuts poses an upside risk to the inflation... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: oil output cuts to cause fresh slowdown Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy gathered pace towards the end of last year, recording growth of as much as 5% y/y. But oil output cuts, combined with a tightening of fiscal policy in... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.2% y/y in December on the back of weaker food and housing inflation and we expect it to fall back into negative territory in early 2019. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equities rally, strikes in Tunisia, Lebanese debt Saudi Arabia’s stock market has rallied over the past week or so, but we expect this to go into reverse. Meanwhile, public sector strikes taking place in Tunisia today highlight the scale of the... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese debt restructuring, Saudi’s dollar bond sale Reports that Lebanon’s government is putting together a debt restructuring plan suggest that some of the risks we’ve previously warned about are crystallising. And there’s a good chance that this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional growth to slow in 2019, Egypt rate cuts The raft of GDP figures released over the past week showed that, in aggregate, the MENA economies strengthened in Q3 of last year. But we think that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in 2019. Meanwhile... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget: wishful thinking Saudi Arabia’s budget for 2019 outlined further fiscal loosening but the government seems to be relying on optimistic assumptions for oil prices to rise to almost $80pb. If prices stay low as we... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Stronger growth in Saudi Arabia won’t last Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy accelerated in Q3 but last week’s OPEC deal to cut oil output means that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in early 2019. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slump and output cuts, Egypt’s IMF deal The recent slump in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, although it does look like policymakers will push ahead with an oil output cut at next week’s OPEC meeting... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Saudi inflation increased to a six-month high in October but this rise is likely to prove fleeting. Inflation will drop sharply at the start of next year as the effects of the new value-added tax and... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi likely to push ahead with modest oil output cut The upcoming OPEC meeting is likely to result in Saudi Arabia agreeing to reduce its oil output. But we think that any cut will be at the more modest end of the spectrum as the authorities balance the... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Can the Gulf economies weather the slump in oil prices? The latest slump in oil prices is unlikely to lead to major balance sheet strains in the largest Gulf economies and, even if prices fall further to $40-50pb, dollar pegs shouldn’t come under threat... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
