Energy Update Aramco IPO won’t have a big impact on the oil market We think that the forthcoming Saudi Aramco IPO is unlikely to have much of an impact on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy or on global oil prices either now, or in the future. Instead, Saudi output in the... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic implications of the Aramco IPO The upcoming sale of a stake in Saudi Aramco would probably make the government less inclined to implement fresh austerity. The long-term impact on the Saudi economy will depend on whether this leads... 4th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepens Our Tracker suggests that the impact of oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to contract in Q3. And output probably fell at a steeper pace in Q4. 28th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi consumer prices fell at their slowest pace so far this year in September and we expect the headline rate to return to positive territory at the start of 2020. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn to deepen Our GDP Tracker suggests that the intensifying drag from oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to slow even further at the start of Q3. Things are likely to get even worse in the coming months... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Saudi Arabia slowed further to 0.5% y/y in Q2 and, in quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy officially entered recession. The slowdown reflected a greater drag from oil output cuts... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi Arabian consumer price figures showed that deflation eased to -1.1% y/y in August and we expect it to return to positive territory in annual terms at the start of next year. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to... 16th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal The change at the helm of the Saudi energy ministry raises the chances that the current OPEC+ output deal is extended beyond its current expiry date of March next year, which would probably require... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks turn to wholesale borrowing The recent sharp rise in Saudi banks’ wholesale borrowing isn’t yet a major cause for concern, but it does mean that credit growth is more vulnerable to a shock that causes external financing... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi consumer prices continued to fall in July, by -1.3% y/y, but a closer look at the data suggests that underlying price pressures are starting to build. The headline rate is likely to return to... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown deepened in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further in Q2, to just 1.0% y/y, as the drag from the oil sector intensified. We think that GDP growth will be even softer in the coming... 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at the Aramco IPO The planned IPO of Aramco – which reports suggest is back on – will probably make the government less inclined to impose fresh austerity measures in response to lower oil prices. The partial sale of... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy continues to lose steam Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy at the start of this year extended into Q2 and it looks set to intensify over the rest of 2019. Our forecast for GDP growth of just... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.) Deflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease last month as the pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector fed through into stronger price pressures. If oil prices stay low, as we expect, the government... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer strength unlikely to be sustained Household consumption in Saudi Arabia expanded at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q1 but the prospect of fresh subsidy cuts and tax hikes means that this recent strength won’t last. 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
