Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia remained in negative territory last month and, barring a fresh round of administered price hikes, we expect this to remain the case for much of this year. 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco’s bond sale, Saudi risk premium Aramco’s bumper bond sale this week was seen by many as a vote of confidence in the Saudi economy and the government’s reform plans. But other indicators don’t back this up. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown to be steeper than most expect Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years in Q4 of last year, but our GDP Tracker points to a renewed slowdown at the start of 2019. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Feb.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia fell at an even faster pace in February than in January and we expect the Kingdom to remain mired in deflation for much of this year. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy’s strong end to 2018 already fading Saudi Arabia’s economy appears to have expanded by around 4.5% y/y in Q4 of last year, but it is now almost certainly slowing. Our forecast for GDP growth of 1.3% this year lies towards the bottom of... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi to extend output cuts, more protests in Algeria Fresh hints from Saudi Arabia that it will extend its oil production cuts into the second half of this year support our view that economic growth in the Kingdom will be weaker than most anticipate... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch The shifting nature of US-Saudi oil relations There has been much commentary in recent months on the balance of power in relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. Many of the areas of mutual interest are geopolitical in nature and we are not... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jan.) Saudi Arabia re-entered deflation at the start of 2019 as we had anticipated, with consumer prices falling by 1.9% y/y in January. A fresh round of subsidy cuts poses an upside risk to the inflation... 19th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output cuts and expat fees, Egypt inflation Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister that oil production will be reduced to well below its OPEC quota suggests that the authorities are focused on driving oil prices higher in order to prevent a... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: oil output cuts to cause fresh slowdown Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy gathered pace towards the end of last year, recording growth of as much as 5% y/y. But oil output cuts, combined with a tightening of fiscal policy in... 31st January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s pound to lose ground, Saudi anti-corruption drive The appreciation of the Egyptian pound this week appears to have been driven by a spurt of foreign portfolio inflows, but we still think that the currency will record a modest fall in the next couple... 31st January 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down to 2.2% y/y in December on the back of weaker food and housing inflation and we expect it to fall back into negative territory in early 2019. 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equities rally, strikes in Tunisia, Lebanese debt Saudi Arabia’s stock market has rallied over the past week or so, but we expect this to go into reverse. Meanwhile, public sector strikes taking place in Tunisia today highlight the scale of the... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese debt restructuring, Saudi’s dollar bond sale Reports that Lebanon’s government is putting together a debt restructuring plan suggest that some of the risks we’ve previously warned about are crystallising. And there’s a good chance that this... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Regional growth to slow in 2019, Egypt rate cuts The raft of GDP figures released over the past week showed that, in aggregate, the MENA economies strengthened in Q3 of last year. But we think that a fresh slowdown is on the cards in 2019. Meanwhile... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi’s optimistic oil price forecasts, Morocco’s IMF deal Saudi Arabia’s 2019 budget was premised on optimistic assumptions regarding oil prices that are likely to be disappointed. If we’re right, fiscal austerity will probably return in mid-2019 and there’s... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
