Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (May) Saudi inflation edged down to 1.1% y/y last month as a further jump in food inflation was more than offset by weaker price pressures in other major categories. But the hike in the VAT rate means that... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation and the impact of the VAT hike The tripling of the VAT rate from July will cause inflation in Saudi Arabia to jump, but the impact may be relatively less severe than it was when VAT was first introduced at the start of 2018. That... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: Q2 collapse to be followed by weak recovery Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy held up relatively well in Q1, but more timely low-profile data point to a collapse in activity in Q2. And, as lockdown measures are eased, the onset of... 1st June 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves: when should we worry? Saudi Arabia’s foreign exchange reserves are being depleted rapidly to protect the dollar peg, but we think that they would need to fall by more than $380bn to less than $100bn before the monetary... 20th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi households at forefront of austerity drive The austerity measures announced by the Saudi government today reinforce our view that it will rely on fiscal consolidation rather than a devaluation to make the adjustment to cheap oil. The measures... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A closer look at how Saudi Arabia uses its reserves There seems to be a lot of confusion as to exactly how Saudi Arabia uses its reserves to finance twin budget and current account deficits. In this Update, we shed some light on the matter. 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi can withstand pressure on riyal Pressure is mounting on Saudi Arabia’s dollar peg and, while there is some opaqueness over the full size of the Kingdom’s FX reserves, we estimate that the authorities could prop up the riyal at... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Saudi-led output cuts won’t be a gamechanger Oil prices have surged by about 30% in recent days after President Trump said that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to jointly cut oil production would come in a “few days”. We are sceptical... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How long can Saudi Arabia weather low oil prices? The fact that the fall in oil prices will cause Saudi Arabia’s government to run a large budget deficit has prompted suggestions that it might have to shift oil policy to prop up prices. But the... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn has passed its trough Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened in Q4 of last year and, while the worst has probably now passed, the downside risks to the outlook are mounting. 27th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf tightening the purse strings Fiscal plans announced across the Gulf over the past month suggest that governments will keep policy tight, a key reason why we think that economic growth will disappoint this year. The Saudi 2020... 29th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A poor end to the decade for Saudi Arabia’s economy Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened at the end of last year as the drag from oil production cuts intensified. A recovery is likely to take hold this year, but... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia emerged from deflation in December, recording a positive inflation reading for the first time in a year. We expect underlying price pressures to stay weak over the course of this year... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2020 budget: austerity makes a comeback Saudi Arabia’s 2020 budget makes clear that the authorities are preparing for a prolonged period of low oil prices by introducing fresh fiscal austerity. This, combined with the deeper oil production... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepened in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by around 0.5% y/y in Q3 as a greater drag from oil production cuts (as well as the temporary disruption from the attacks on oil... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Oct.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia declined at their slowest pace so far this year in October and the headline rate is likely to return to positive territory soon. The prospect of fresh fiscal tightening... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
