Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jul.) Saudi consumer prices continued to fall in July, by -1.3% y/y, but a closer look at the data suggests that underlying price pressures are starting to build. The headline rate is likely to return to... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown deepened in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further in Q2, to just 1.0% y/y, as the drag from the oil sector intensified. We think that GDP growth will be even softer in the coming... 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at the Aramco IPO The planned IPO of Aramco – which reports suggest is back on – will probably make the government less inclined to impose fresh austerity measures in response to lower oil prices. The partial sale of... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy continues to lose steam Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy at the start of this year extended into Q2 and it looks set to intensify over the rest of 2019. Our forecast for GDP growth of just... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Jun.) Deflation in Saudi Arabia continued to ease last month as the pick-up in activity in the non-oil sector fed through into stronger price pressures. If oil prices stay low, as we expect, the government... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer strength unlikely to be sustained Household consumption in Saudi Arabia expanded at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q1 but the prospect of fresh subsidy cuts and tax hikes means that this recent strength won’t last. 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (May) Easing Saudi deflation in May suggests that the recent pick-up in growth in the non-oil sector is feeding through into price pressures. In addition, a fresh round of subsidy cuts is looking... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia to slip further Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in the first quarter as a pick-up in the non-oil economy was offset by weakness in the oil sector. We think that the slowdown has further to... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Apr.) The further easing of deflation in Saudi Arabia in April suggests that stronger activity in the non-oil sector at the start of this year is (finally) feeding through to a pick-up in price pressures. 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi credit growth to remain subdued Credit growth in Saudi Arabia has started to pick up and, with monetary conditions set to be loosened in line with the US, it is likely to strengthen further over the next couple of years. That said... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Saudi Arabia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Saudi Arabia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 13th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Bahrain’s fiscal woes, Tadawul falls, PMIs positive Developments in Bahrain over the past week suggest that the government is backtracking on its commitment to fiscal austerity. We doubt that the other Gulf countries will withdraw their support but, if... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi budget position likely to deteriorate Saudi Arabia recorded a budget surplus in Q1 but, if oil prices drop back as we expect, the fiscal position is likely to deteriorate. This won’t cause significant balance sheet strains, although... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equity rally to fade, mixed news for Morocco Saudi equities have continued to rally this week, but we think that they will erase all of their recent gains by the end of this year. Meanwhile, projections from Morocco’s agriculture ministry... 2nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown has further to run After reaching a three-year high in Q4 2018, GDP growth in Saudi Arabia has slowed at the start of this year as the drag from oil output cuts has more than offset a pick-up in activity in the non-oil... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi oil output, Egypt’s constitutional referendum US President Trump’s decision not to extend waivers on Iran’s oil exports means that Saudi Arabia is likely to raise oil production over the coming months. While this poses an upside risk to our GDP... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
