Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf tightening the purse strings Fiscal plans announced across the Gulf over the past month suggest that governments will keep policy tight, a key reason why we think that economic growth will disappoint this year. The Saudi 2020... 29th January 2020 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A poor end to the decade for Saudi Arabia’s economy Our GDP Tracker suggests that the downturn in Saudi Arabia’s economy deepened at the end of last year as the drag from oil production cuts intensified. A recovery is likely to take hold this year, but... 27th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Dec.) Saudi Arabia emerged from deflation in December, recording a positive inflation reading for the first time in a year. We expect underlying price pressures to stay weak over the course of this year... 21st January 2020 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi 2020 budget: austerity makes a comeback Saudi Arabia’s 2020 budget makes clear that the authorities are preparing for a prolonged period of low oil prices by introducing fresh fiscal austerity. This, combined with the deeper oil production... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepened in Q3 Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted by around 0.5% y/y in Q3 as a greater drag from oil production cuts (as well as the temporary disruption from the attacks on oil... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Oct.) Consumer prices in Saudi Arabia declined at their slowest pace so far this year in October and the headline rate is likely to return to positive territory soon. The prospect of fresh fiscal tightening... 19th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Aramco IPO won’t have a big impact on the oil market We think that the forthcoming Saudi Aramco IPO is unlikely to have much of an impact on Saudi Arabia’s oil policy or on global oil prices either now, or in the future. Instead, Saudi output in the... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The economic implications of the Aramco IPO The upcoming sale of a stake in Saudi Aramco would probably make the government less inclined to implement fresh austerity. The long-term impact on the Saudi economy will depend on whether this leads... 4th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic downturn deepens Our Tracker suggests that the impact of oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to contract in Q3. And output probably fell at a steeper pace in Q4. 28th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi consumer prices fell at their slowest pace so far this year in September and we expect the headline rate to return to positive territory at the start of 2020. 21st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi downturn to deepen Our GDP Tracker suggests that the intensifying drag from oil production cuts caused the Saudi economy to slow even further at the start of Q3. Things are likely to get even worse in the coming months... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Saudi Arabia slowed further to 0.5% y/y in Q2 and, in quarter-on-quarter terms, the economy officially entered recession. The slowdown reflected a greater drag from oil output cuts... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi Arabian consumer price figures showed that deflation eased to -1.1% y/y in August and we expect it to return to positive territory in annual terms at the start of next year. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Abqaiq attacks There is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the attacks on Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq oil facility but, so long as the worst of the disruption to oil supplies lasts no more than a few days, the hit to... 16th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update New Saudi oil minister may push to extend OPEC+ deal The change at the helm of the Saudi energy ministry raises the chances that the current OPEC+ output deal is extended beyond its current expiry date of March next year, which would probably require... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks turn to wholesale borrowing The recent sharp rise in Saudi banks’ wholesale borrowing isn’t yet a major cause for concern, but it does mean that credit growth is more vulnerable to a shock that causes external financing... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
