OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s oil production soared in July as Saudi Arabia unwound the bulk of its voluntary output cut. Although OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged, we think that the near-term demand outlook has... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russians return to Egypt, Saudi budget deficit narrows Egypt welcomed back Russian tourists for the first time in six years this week, but any boost to the ailing tourism sector is likely to be limited as other countries maintain travel restrictions to... 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2, Flash Estimate) The 1.1% q/q expansion in Saudi Arabia’s GDP in Q2 was driven by the unwinding of the voluntary oil output cuts and the easing of virus-related restrictions supported domestic activity. With the OPEC+... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals The announcement that the price of state-subsidised bread in Egypt will be raised adds to our view that inflation will drift higher and that the central bank will hold off from cutting rates for now... 5th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) July’s whole economy PMIs painted a mixed picture with recoveries in Qatar and the UAE’s non-oil sectors picking up pace, while those in Egypt and Saudi Arabia softening. Strong vaccine rollouts and... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Unrest in Tunisia, Gulf restrictions, Egypt fuel hike Tunisia’s President Kais Saied’s power grab on Sunday and moves over the course of this week will reinforce concerns about the future of democracy in the country and the likelihood of a sovereign debt... 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi economy picking up pace Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery appears to have been quite strong in Q2 and the further easing of virus restrictions and rising oil production means that GDP growth will continue to gather steam over... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack OPEC+ agreement provides a boost to Gulf recoveries The end of the impasse within OPEC+ this month will result in higher oil output and boost recoveries in the Gulf over the second half of this year and in 2022. Output quotas will rise by 400,000bpd... 28th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Energy Higher OPEC+ production to weigh on oil prices The OPEC+ agreement, signed yesterday, should help to stabilise oil prices and we expect Brent crude to trade in a narrow band of between $70 and 75 per barrel over next six months. But we expect... 19th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Saudi inflation rose to 6.2% y/y in June but it will fall sharply in July to around 1.0 y/y as the effects of last year’s VAT hike fall out of the annual price comparison. Inflation is likely to hover... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman and the IMF, vaccines in Egypt The failure of OPEC+ to reach an agreement over new output quotas has raised the likelihood that the deal collapses and the Gulf states ramp up production. Elsewhere, Oman has asked for IMF assistance... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi transport & labour market, Egypt CA deficit The National Transport and Logistics Strategy launched in Saudi Arabia this week is the latest effort to boost the Kingdom’s non-oil sector, but it will raise more concerns whether resources are being... 1st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi inflation to slump, risks lie to the downside Saudi inflation is set to fall sharply in July as last year’s VAT hike falls out of the annual comparison. While there will be some upwards inflation pressure from the re-opening of the economy and... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi recovery gathering pace Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery seems to have got back on track in Q2 and, as virus restrictions are eased further and oil production cuts are scaled back, a strong second half of the year lies in... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Higher oil prices to help narrow twin deficits The price of oil has continued to rise and will help to improve balance sheets in the Gulf. With oil prices at $75pb, all Gulf economies with the exceptions of Bahrain and Oman are likely to be... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
