Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ to stay the course, Qatari banks, Saudi’s new NIF We think OPEC+ will stick to its guns next week and raise output quotas by 400,000bpd, but if it bows to pressure to move more quickly the Gulf economies would stand to benefit most. Elsewhere... 28th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack What do higher oil prices mean outside of the Gulf? The Gulf countries will be among the biggest winners globally from the recent rally in energy prices but most other parts of the Middle East and North Africa are net oil importers and are likely to be... 27th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does the energy price surge mean for the Gulf? Higher oil and gas revenues are likely to prompt a modest shift to looser fiscal policy in the large Gulf economies, although Bahrain and Oman will still need to stick to austerity. Meanwhile, if OPEC... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf to outperform Economic recoveries in the Gulf will continue to gather pace over the coming year on the back of successful vaccine rollouts and higher oil output, and our GDP growth forecasts lie above the consensus... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Saudi inflation rose to 0.6% y/y in September and is likely to drift a little higher over the rest of this year. However, we do not envisage a significant pick up in the headline rate and inflation is... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ fallout, Oman’s upgrade, TUI cancellations The OPEC+ meeting this week triggered a rise in oil prices and, while we expect prices to fall by next year, rising production means that overall oil export revenues for the Gulf economies should... 7th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) September’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that recoveries in non-hydrocarbon private sectors in Saudi Arabia and Qatar gathered pace as domestic activity strengthened on the back of easing virus... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Rise in inflation to prove short-lived Inflation in many economies in the region has risen to multi-year highs in recent months. In general, this has been driven higher by a combination of unfavourable base effects from the pandemic, as... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon finally gets a government, Saudi education plans The news that Lebanon finally formed a new government this week came as welcome relief amid the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crises. But there are still plenty of big hurdles to... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation edged down to 0.3% y/y in August and is likely to remain around this level over the coming months. We think that inflation will pick up to 1.0-1.5% y/y in 2022-23, although the... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Algosaibi deal, Egypt and COVID, UAE Projects of the 50 One of Saudi Arabia’s largest conglomerates, the Algosaibi group, is on the cusp of securing a debt restructuring agreement with its creditors, a sign that recent reforms are helping to speed up... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery hits a bump in the road Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery lost some steam in Q3 but, with virus restrictions easing further and oil production rising, GDP growth will strengthen over the rest of this year and next. 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries move to lift containment measures High levels of vaccine coverage have paved the way for policymakers across the Gulf to lift measures to contain COVID-19 over the past month or so. The UAE remains ahead of the pack in the vaccine... 26th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
