Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Aug. 2024)

August’s batch of PMIs showed a slightly more positive outturn for the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors, but there was better news from Egypt where its PMI rose back above the 50-mark for the first time...

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Aug. '24)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report

The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies...

22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s credit splurge a slow-burning risk

The rapid expansion of commercial bank lending in Saudi Arabia has raised the risk of an increase in non-performing loans and heightened the exposure of the banking sector to both the real estate...

20th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Reforms on the agenda in the Gulf, Morocco’s budget

Reports this week suggest that Kuwait’s government will pursue public finance reforms to diversify revenues away from oil, but the reported measures appear to be small in the grand scheme of things...

15th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Jul. ‘24)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.5% y/y in July, but we expect that the headline rate will ease back over the remainder of this year and potentially fall back below 1% y/y by...

15th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The global market turmoil and the impact on MENA

Financial markets in the Middle East weren’t spared from the global sell-off earlier in the week. There could be a macro impact on the Gulf economies through the fall in oil prices, either via lower...

8th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Jul. 2024)

July’s batch of PMIs were softer across the board, adding to signs that activity in private non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf is weakening. Egypt’s PMI also dropped back but, under the hood, there...

5th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Tensions ratcheting up, Egypt-IMF, Saudi Q2 data

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are on the brink of boiling over after Israel’s assassinations of high-ranking Hezbollah and Hamas officials this week. It remains to be seen what the response...

1st August 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2 ‘24 Flash Estimate)

Saudi Arabia’s flash estimate of GDP showed that that the economy grew by a solid 1.4% q/q in Q2 and, while non-oil activity is likely to slow over the second half of this year, it will be more than...

31st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output...

29th July 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections

Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants...

25th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and Saudi-US relations, IMF growth downgrades

Donald Trump has laid out his intentions of restoring warm ties with Saudi Arabia if he wins re-election, with the intention of pulling Saudi back into the US’s orbit in a fracturing global economy...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (June 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate edged slightly down to a six-month low of 1.5% y/y in June and, while we expect a small increase in the headline rate during Q3, the bigger picture remains that...

16th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi pension changes, Saudi and Egypt Q1 BoP data

The increase in Saudi Arabia statutory retirement age could increase the size of the labour force by 10% by 2040 and, in turn, lift potential GDP growth by as much as 1%-pt per annum. Meanwhile, Q1’s...

11th July 2024 · 8 mins read