Commodities Update

The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025

While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain...

3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Nov. 2024)

November’s batch of PMIs showed an increase all of the Gulf economies, although there remained some underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s PMI improved a touch as...

3rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, Saudi budget, OPEC+

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreed this week may present a stepping stone towards broader de-escalation of the regional conflict. But the economic spillovers for Egypt and Jordan are likely to...

28th November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Nov. 24)

Our Middle East & North Africa Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as...

27th November 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s privatisation drive, Saudi’s geopolitical tug of war

With Egypt’s macroeconomic stability restored, officials are starting to turn their attention to longer term reforms and number one on the list appears to be reinvigorating the stalled privatisation...

21st November 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt inflation and CBE meeting, US Middle East policy

The increase in Egyptian inflation in October all but rules out an interest rate cut before the end of the year. But we continue to think a fall in inflation early next year will allow a loosening...

14th November 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia Consumer & Wholesale Prices (Oct. 2024)

Saudi Arabia’s headline inflation rate accelerated from 1.7% y/y in September to 1.9% y/y in October, a fourth consecutive rise and the fastest pace of inflation since August 2023. We expect inflation...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Trump and MENA: tariffs, dollar pegs, oil, and geopolitics

The Middle East and North Africa, for the most part, will be little affected by any direct effects of US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to raise tariffs. But, for those with dollar pegs...

7th November 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

PMIs (Oct. 2024)

October’s batch of PMIs showed an increase across all of the Gulf economies, although there remained underlying signs that non-oil activity is softening. Elsewhere, Egypt’s survey also improved last...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

If at first OPEC+ don’t succeed, delay, delay again

OPEC+’s latest delay to its long-held plans to raise output will have a marginal impact on oil supply over 2025. We still suspect that OPEC+’s most likely course of action is to gradually increase...

4th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

The US election and implications for MENA

Next week’s US presidential election will have major ramifications for the Middle East and North Africa. Attention will probably focus on how either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump tackle the Israel...

31st October 2024 · 7 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 ’24, Flash Estimate)

The 0.8% q/q rise in Saudi GDP in Q3 is likely to be followed by further steady increases, but growth will be driven increasingly by higher oil output while there are signs that the non-oil sector is...

31st October 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our latest Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack has been updated to reflect the latest data and developments in the region. Headline GDP growth in the Gulf economies will strengthen in 2025 as oil...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt-IMF, Tunisia unorthodox policies, Blinken in Riyadh

The economic hit from Egypt’s reforms is prompting officials to reevaluate the timeline for future policy moves under the IMF deal. But given the rise in capital flows from elsewhere, Egypt is better...

24th October 2024 · 8 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil sector set for a slowdown

Saudi Arabia’s economy is making a steady recovery as solid growth in the non-oil sector offsets low oil production. Growth will continue to pick up over the coming quarters, but the drivers will...

24th October 2024 · 4 mins read