Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanon finally gets a government, Saudi education plans The news that Lebanon finally formed a new government this week came as welcome relief amid the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crises. But there are still plenty of big hurdles to... 16th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Saudi inflation edged down to 0.3% y/y in August and is likely to remain around this level over the coming months. We think that inflation will pick up to 1.0-1.5% y/y in 2022-23, although the... 15th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Algosaibi deal, Egypt and COVID, UAE Projects of the 50 One of Saudi Arabia’s largest conglomerates, the Algosaibi group, is on the cusp of securing a debt restructuring agreement with its creditors, a sign that recent reforms are helping to speed up... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery hits a bump in the road Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery lost some steam in Q3 but, with virus restrictions easing further and oil production rising, GDP growth will strengthen over the rest of this year and next. 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly OPEC+ on track, UAE eases restrictions with Expo in sight This month’s OPEC+ meeting passed without much fanfare as the recent rebound in oil prices prompted the group to push ahead with raising oil output, which will help to lift the Gulf economies further... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf countries move to lift containment measures High levels of vaccine coverage have paved the way for policymakers across the Gulf to lift measures to contain COVID-19 over the past month or so. The UAE remains ahead of the pack in the vaccine... 26th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Gulf and oil prices, Egypt remittances, PIF’s Call of Duty The latest drop back in oil prices is unlikely to be of much concern to policymakers in the Gulf and we still think that there is a window of opportunity for fiscal policy to be loosened. Elsewhere... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A dive into Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments A rise in oil prices has supported an improvement in Saudi Arabia’s current account position, which should be in surplus over the coming years. That, combined with signs that the sovereign wealth fund... 16th August 2021 · 4 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Aug.) OPEC’s oil production soared in July as Saudi Arabia unwound the bulk of its voluntary output cut. Although OPEC left its demand forecast unchanged, we think that the near-term demand outlook has... 12th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russians return to Egypt, Saudi budget deficit narrows Egypt welcomed back Russian tourists for the first time in six years this week, but any boost to the ailing tourism sector is likely to be limited as other countries maintain travel restrictions to... 12th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q2, Flash Estimate) The 1.1% q/q expansion in Saudi Arabia’s GDP in Q2 was driven by the unwinding of the voluntary oil output cuts and the easing of virus-related restrictions supported domestic activity. With the OPEC+... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE vaccine rollout, Egypt and Oman subsidy reversals The announcement that the price of state-subsidised bread in Egypt will be raised adds to our view that inflation will drift higher and that the central bank will hold off from cutting rates for now... 5th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jul.) July’s whole economy PMIs painted a mixed picture with recoveries in Qatar and the UAE’s non-oil sectors picking up pace, while those in Egypt and Saudi Arabia softening. Strong vaccine rollouts and... 3rd August 2021 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Unrest in Tunisia, Gulf restrictions, Egypt fuel hike Tunisia’s President Kais Saied’s power grab on Sunday and moves over the course of this week will reinforce concerns about the future of democracy in the country and the likelihood of a sovereign debt... 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
