Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Gulf leads the way as Ukraine war drives divergence The Gulf economies will be major beneficiaries from higher energy prices and our growth forecasts sit far above the consensus. Outside the Gulf, higher inflation and tighter fiscal policy will weigh... 25th April 2022 · 25 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on the up Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has strengthened in recent months and, with oil output set to be raised further, the economy will record its fastest rate of growth in over a decade in 2022. 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Saudi inflation rose to 2.0% y/y in March on the back of stronger food and transport prices, and we think it will continue to strengthen over the coming months and peak at around 2.5% y/y in Q3. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) March’s batch of whole economy PMIs were a mixed bag but further highlighted that the spillovers from the war in Ukraine are driving a divergence between the Gulf and non-Gulf economies. Emerging... 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack External strains building in North Africa The Gulf stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Oil output is likely to be raised more quickly, while higher energy prices will boost export revenues by around 10% of GDP this year, providing some... 30th March 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Regional divergence to widen on back of Ukraine war The spillovers from the war in Ukraine will further drive divergence in economic growth across the Middle East and North Africa. The Gulf economies stand to benefit as oil production is likely to be... 23rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, wiring shortage a fillip to North Africa The Iran nuclear deal appears to be on the brink of being revived and, were that to happen, the lifting of sanctions would provide a major direct boost to Iran’s economy. Increased oil output could... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update How will Fed tightening affect the Gulf? Central banks in the Gulf will have to follow the US Federal Reserve in raising interest rates by virtue of their dollar pegs, which will weigh on domestic demand and recoveries in non-oil sectors... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Saudi inflation rose to 1.6% y/y in February, and we think that it will continue to strengthen over the coming months on the back of increasing food prices, peaking at around 2.5% y/y in Q3. 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The war in Ukraine and Saudi oil policy Saudi Arabia has so far resisted pressure from the US to raise oil production in order to dampen prices but, with Russian oil production and exports set to be disrupted, we think that a move in this... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economic recovery gets back on track After a small hit to activity earlier in the year on the back of the Omicron wave, Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery appears to have strengthened more recently. The Kingdom is not overly exposed... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Feb.) February’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed that activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf rebounded after the short-lived disruption from the Omicron variant. Meanwhile, the Gulf economies... 3rd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Energy markets present upside risk to the Gulf The Gulf economies are key beneficiaries from the rise in energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. On an annualised basis, oil at $100pb would increase hydrocarbon export revenues by 7-10%... 28th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly What does the Russia-Ukraine crisis mean for MENA? This morning Russia has launched an invasion of Ukraine and, for oil producers in the Gulf, the further rise in oil prices is positive for their economies. But for others in the region, the... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
