Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The modest rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of January, which was slightly weaker than expectations, is unlikely to alter the thinking of COPOM. Assuming that the real holds up over the... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: navigating choppy waters… July’s elections and Nafta renegotiations make the uncertainties around the outlook for interest rates in Mexico unusually high. An election upset or the collapse of Nafta could result in interest... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil? The cyclical forces driving Brazil’s economic recovery are likely to strengthen over the next 6-12 months and our GDP forecast for 2018 remains above the consensus. Our bigger concern lies around... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse The admission by World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer that the drop in Chile’s ranking in its annual Doing Business survey in recent years is due almost entirely to changes in how the survey is... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank still has room to trim rates further Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate last night by 25bp to 3.00% and, while the statement didn’t give much away regarding future moves, we still think there’s room for another 25bp cut in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Mexican inflation to a fresh 18-year high of 6.8% y/y in December will probably lead to further calls for Banxico to raise rates again at its policy meeting on 9th February. While another... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina fixing fiscal mess but wavering on inflation Argentina’s president, Mauricio Macri, has wasted little time in kick-starting his reform agenda following October’s mid-term elections, with a range of fiscal measures announced over the past month... 8th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) November’s 0.2% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production was the third consecutive monthly expansion, and the latest survey data indicate that conditions in the sector should continue to improve... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Brazil & Mexico probably picked up in Q4 We wouldn’t put much weight on the dip in Mexico’s business surveys in December since they have become a less reliable indicator of shifts in economic conditions over the past year. Indeed, the hard... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier economies to strengthen in 2018 Frontier markets have enjoyed a recovery in 2017, with aggregate GDP growth set to reach close to 3%, up from a seven-year low of 2.3% in 2016. Frontiers in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa have... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A strong 2017 – but 2018 likely to be more challenging 2017 has been another strong year for asset markets in Latin America but there are already signs that 2018 will be more challenging. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Kuczynski impeachment threat rumbles Peru’s markets The vote due later this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski seems likely to pass. If removed, Vice President Martin Vizcarra would take over and, while a... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack A strong 2017 – but 2018 will be more challenging Our GDP Tracker suggests that the emerging world is on course to grow by just over 4.5% in 2017 – it’s fastest pace of expansion in six years. The pick-up has been broad-based, with growth in Emerging... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
