Latin America Economics Update Brazil: living on borrowed time We don’t think that the apparent collapse of pension reform in Brazil will have much of a bearing on the economy’s performance over the next 6-12 months. Even so, the current pension system – and by... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Monetary policy cycles nearing turning points Monetary policy cycles across the region are nearing turning points. In most cases this means that easing cycles are drawing to a close and, as markets start to consider the eventual onset of monetary... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Rising political risks shouldn’t derail recovery Political risks are rising across Latin America. In Colombia and Mexico, left-leaning candidates have consolidated their leads in opinion polls ahead of presidential elections later this year, while... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) The pause in the decline in Mexican headline inflation in the first half of February masks the fact that core inflation posted its biggest decline in over three years. The central bank is likely to... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update External vulnerabilities continue to diminish The volatility in global financial markets in recent weeks has brought concerns about EM external vulnerabilities back into the spotlight. However, with the notable exception of Argentina, economies... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil's industrial recovery remains on track 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Life left in the region’s recovery While the rest of the global economy experienced a pick-up in growth towards the end of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that regional growth in Latin America flat-lined at around 2.5% y/y in Q4 –... 29th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lula verdict gives bump to markets but questions remain The decision by a Brazilian court to uphold the corruption conviction against former President Lula complicates his plans to run for the presidency this year but it doesn't finish them altogether. The... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The sharp fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January is likely to be the start of a downwards trend, and we expect headline inflation to fall back into the central bank’s target range by... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan.) The modest rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of January, which was slightly weaker than expectations, is unlikely to alter the thinking of COPOM. Assuming that the real holds up over the... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia’s recovery to strengthen in 2018 We expect economic growth in Colombia to accelerate over the course of 2018. Inflation should fall sharply from the start of this year and interest rates are likely to be cut further. We do not... 22nd January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: navigating choppy waters… July’s elections and Nafta renegotiations make the uncertainties around the outlook for interest rates in Mexico unusually high. An election upset or the collapse of Nafta could result in interest... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Brazil? The cyclical forces driving Brazil’s economic recovery are likely to strengthen over the next 6-12 months and our GDP forecast for 2018 remains above the consensus. Our bigger concern lies around... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update World Bank not to blame for Chile’s investment collapse The admission by World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer that the drop in Chile’s ranking in its annual Doing Business survey in recent years is due almost entirely to changes in how the survey is... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s central bank still has room to trim rates further Peru’s central bank cut its policy interest rate last night by 25bp to 3.00% and, while the statement didn’t give much away regarding future moves, we still think there’s room for another 25bp cut in... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
