Emerging Markets Economics Update Will softer EM inflation trigger interest rate cuts? The recent string of weak inflation data released across EMs has been due largely to a drop in food inflation and, while we think that many central banks will look through this, policymakers in some... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Export soft spot adds to evidence EM growth has peaked The export components of the EM business surveys have not deteriorated to the same extent as those in developed markets over the past couple of months, but they nonetheless add to the evidence that... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about the rise in EM public debt? The IMF’s latest Fiscal Monitor has put the rise in EM public debt over the past decade back under the spotlight. While debt ratios have increased across most of the emerging world, major... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Election fallout likely to be greatest in Brazil, not Mexico There are still plenty of twists and turns that have yet to play out ahead of elections in Mexico and Brazil later this year. But developments over the past month mean we are becoming less concerned... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Currency vulnerabilities building in a few EMs Financial risks remain low in the emerging world. However, since our last Financial Risks Monitor, currency vulnerabilities have increased in a handful of countries. 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Apr.) Our Tracker shows that aggregate capital flows to EMs have been resilient over the past few months in the face of fears of a protectionist shift in the US and sell-offs in equity markets. Concerns... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update A disappointing Q1, but things should get better The raft of activity data released across Latin America in recent weeks suggests that the region’s economic recovery stalled in Q1. However, there are reasons to expect it to resume over the remainder... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nafta hopes buoy Mexican peso and bond markets Despite the clashes between the US and China on trade, some more hopeful news on Nafta talks this month has supported the Mexican peso and local currency government bonds – particularly at the long... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Trade war fears bypass Lat Am The escalating rhetoric over trade protectionism has largely bypassed the economies of Latin America. Indeed, the focus on US actions on steel and aluminium, as well as alleged intellectual property... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Better news at the start of Q1 Having slowed over the final quarter of last year, our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth nudged up for the first time in five months in January. 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier currencies come under pressure Most major Emerging Market currencies have fared well over the past month even as concerns of a global trade war have mounted, but a number of those in Frontier Markets have struggled. Indeed, only... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook Cyclical recovery to gather momentum We expect growth in most countries in Latin America to accelerate over the course of this year as the region’s cyclical recovery gathers pace. Inflation is now bottoming out and in most places it will... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Piñera inherits strengthening economy Chile’s new president Sebastián Piñera is inheriting an economy with some cyclical momentum and we expect the recovery to continue over the course of this year. That said, growth over his four-year... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Trump, trade and the protectionist threat: a primer Fears are growing that recent developments in the US, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminium as well as the apparent ascendancy of economic nationalists within the White House, may... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for the Andes? We expect recoveries in Colombia, Chile and Peru to continue over the coming years as investment strengthens and consumer spending picks up. There are downside risks to the outlook – namely large... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
