Latin America Economics Weekly BCB independence, Banxico could resist calls for hike A bill to make Brazil’s central bank formally independent, which has been rumoured this week, would boost market optimism about Jair Bolsonaro’s reform promise and have positive long-term economic... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Are EMs’ current accounts still a point of concern? The large current account deficits in Turkey and Argentina that precipitated currency crises this year are now narrowing and external positions are in decent shape in most major EMs. But there are a... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Financial conditions tightening in several EMs Strains in the balance of payments of some EMs last quarter seem to have been driven mainly by a decline in flows to bond markets. These flows now seem to have stabilised, but financial conditions... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Upcoming Amlo flashpoints, Brazil’s pension hurdles The decision by Mexican president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) to cancel the Texcoco airport construction spooked local markets, and upcoming decisions on the 2019 budget and oil field... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRICs drive uptick in EM manufacturing in Q4 The run of consecutive declines in the EM manufacturing PMI came to an end at the start of this quarter, thanks to an improvement in the surveys across the BRIC economies. Moreover, the breakdown of... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will low valuations cause EM equities to outperform? Although the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities have tumbled compared to those of their developed market (DM) peers, we are not convinced that they will deliver much higher returns over the... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost; Amlo, energy and populism The growing optimism in Brazil’s markets about a likely victory for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election this Sunday is increasingly difficult to square with events on the ground. In Mexico... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Brazil and Argentina: reform hopes rising… for now The sharp rallies in the Argentine peso and Brazilian real reflect growing optimism that economic policymaking will improve in both countries, but markets seem to be looking through the political... 25th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro’s reform agenda, BCB rates hikes The plans outlined by Brazil’s likely next president, Jair Bolsonaro, to tackle some of the causes of Brazil’s productivity problem should be welcomed. But his apparent waning commitment to fiscal and... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Weaker currencies to provide only a modest boost The falls in most Latin American currencies this year have improved competiveness, but the conditions don’t seem to be in place for this to translate into a significant increase in net exports. 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Valuations don’t point to rebound in EM currencies Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro backtracking, Argentina’s austerity Business friendly candidate Jair Bolsonaro looks on course to win the second round of Brazil’s presidential election later this month, but recent noises from the campaign trail have called into... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weathering the storm? Economic growth has held up far better than financial markets in the emerging world over the past few months. But while some countries will continue to do well, EM growth in aggregate is now slowing... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost, Banxico’s dissenter The sharp rally in Brazilian asset prices this week appears to reflect growing expectations that right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro will win the presidential election, the first round of which is on... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM local currency bonds not out of the woods While the recent shift towards tighter monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) is likely to continue, this is largely priced in to markets already. But we think that local currency government... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
