Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s pension reform push, Mexico fuel shortages Brazil’s government is reportedly close to agreeing a pension reform bill, but we still think that political realities may end up diluting or stalling welfare reform. Elsewhere, the Mexican government... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (Nov.) & Chile CPI (Dec.) The softer-than-expected Brazilian industrial production figure for November of 0.1% m/m underscores the weakness of the economy and supports our view that some of the optimism about growth prospects... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost continues, Banxico a bit less hawkish Brazilian markets have performed strongly this week as hopes for business-friendly reforms under President Jair Bolsonaro have continued to build, but we think that the rally may run out of steam... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further slowdown The fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month was fairly broad-based and supports our view that growth in the emerging world as a whole will slow this year. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela debt crisis phase II, what to watch in 2019 News that creditors have started the process for triggering an “acceleration” clause in one of Venezuela’s sovereign dollar bonds suggests that, after a lengthy impasse, the debt crisis is likely to... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EMs set for weaker growth in 2019 EM GDP growth lost momentum over the second half of 2018 and we expect this to continue next year as growth in Emerging Asia, notably China, and Emerging Europe weakens. 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Turning the corner The recent slowdown in Latin American growth appears to have passed its trough. Our regional GDP Tracker suggests that output rose by around 1.3-1.5% y/y at the start of Q4, up from a low point of... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A guide to elections in 2019 In this Update we discuss the key implications of EM elections scheduled for 2019. Votes in Ukraine and Argentina – where opposition candidates could put IMF deals at risk – probably pose the greatest... 18th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities not likely to bounce back in 2019 EM equities have had a torrid year, and we doubt that things will get any better in 2019. Indeed, we forecast that the MSCI EM Index will end next year around 10% below its current level, a similarly... 17th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ending 2018 on a weaker footing EM growth has slowed over the course of 2018 and our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate growth fell to its weakest pace in two years in Q4, at around 4.0%. 2019 is unlikely to be better. We expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Amlo’s first budget, Argentina in recession Mexico’s 2019 budget that will be presented to Congress on Saturday looks set to (unrealistically) target a primary budget surplus. But, more importantly, if spending is projected to rise by much more... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM dollar bond yields likely to rise even further The yield of the JP Morgan EMBI Global has edged up over the past month as a whole, despite a slump in underlying Treasury yields. We expect this pattern to be repeated next year. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Nov.) Our Tracker suggests that, in Q4, capital outflows from EMs are on course to be the largest since “Trumpflation” in early 2017. But the pace of outflows did at least ease a little in November. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Why earnings are likely to weigh on EM equities Despite the fact that it has already fallen a long way, we think that the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index will drop by another 10-15% by the end of next year. This is partly because we expect... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pricing Amlo risk, Brazil’s GDP quirk Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s announcement that he will postpone oil auctions adds to a series of populist moves that have rattled local markets, and we reckon this has resulted in a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
