Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing stumbles at the start of 2019 The sharp fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI last month is consistent with a slowdown in industrial production growth to 2% y/y, from around 4% in 2018. This may be an early sign that EM... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela’s lessons from history, Vale impact Venezuelan dollar bonds have continued to rally this week on hopes of a swift political transition, debt restructuring and economic overhaul, but history suggests that this could prove optimistic... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets appear to be mispricing LatAm political risks We think that the reactions in bond markets to Brazil’s and Mexico’s new leaders have gone too far. Investors in Brazil look overly optimistic about President Bolsonaro’s ability to turn the public... 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Slump in Asian industry drags down EM growth Aggregate EM growth slowed to its weakest pace in two years in the middle of Q4, and more timely data point to further weakness. We expect the slowdown to continue over the course of this year. 29th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Lenín going to the IMF, Venezuela’s crisis deepens Speculation is growing that Ecuador’s president, Lenín Moreno, will seek an IMF deal in the coming months, and history suggests that the recent rally in sovereign dollar bonds has further to run... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM export weakness to continue in 2019 EM export growth slowed sharply in November and the early signs are that the December figures will be even worse. Some of this was due to falls in commodity prices. But much of the weakness appears to... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM debt risks The slowdown in the global economy has raised fresh concerns about rising EM debt levels. The risks posed by China’s credit boom are now well known, although mitigated by the nature of the lending... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has EM exposure to a China slowdown fallen? A number of EMs, particularly in Asia, look vulnerable to the impact of a China slowdown – and are just as exposed as they were when fears of a China ‘hard landing’ flared up in 2015. While we wouldn... 22nd January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A broad-based slowdown EM GDP growth has started to slow and will be weaker than most expect in the coming quarters. Domestic strains are growing following previous policy tightening and external headwinds are building... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Weakness in ARS to continue, noisy Brazil data The Argentine peso has given up some of its recent gains against the dollar this week, and we expect further weakness over the coming months. Elsewhere, better-than-expected Brazilian retail sales... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow recovery GDP growth in Latin America should strengthen in the coming quarters, but the pace of the recovery will be weaker than most expect. Fiscal and monetary policy are likely to be tightened and external... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are in the firing line in 2019? We expect EM currencies to weaken against the US dollar in 2019, with the South African rand and Colombian peso likely to fall by more than most. The Argentine peso and Turkish lira will probably be... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Brace for slowdown in 2019 Weak EM trade data at the end of last year is a sign of things to come in 2019. We expect that the combination of lower commodity prices and slower global economic growth will cause the US dollar... 16th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will fiscal policy support EMs in 2019? China’s government is loosening fiscal policy to cushion the slowdown and it looks like a handful of economies, mainly in East Asia, will also loosen the purse strings this year. However, more EMs are... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where are the risks greatest in EM equity markets? We think that EM Asian equities are set for more pain in 2019 despite their generally positive start to the year, and suspect that they will again be among the worst performers in the MSCI EM Index... 14th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Sovereign debt risks building 2018 was marked by currency crises in Turkey and Argentina, but the risks of large currency adjustments elsewhere in the emerging world have diminished. Meanwhile, sovereign debt risks appear to be... 11th January 2019 · 1 min read
