Latin America Economics Weekly Ecuador’s IMF deal to sustain bond rally, ARS drop Ecuador’s IMF deal announced this week will help to anchor President Lenín Moreno’s austerity drive and sustain the rally in sovereign bonds. Meanwhile, the Argentine peso has come under renewed... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Central banks take a dovish turn The weakness of the latest inflation and economic activity data in many emerging markets, combined with growing expectations for looser monetary policy in the developed world, has prompted a dovish... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why we’re sticking to our guns on EM equities EM equities’ flying start to the year has continued this week, but we are sticking to our view that they will fall over 2019 as a whole, as the darkening outlook for the global economy takes its toll... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Pemex’s sticking plaster, Argentina’s fiscal rumours The bailout package announced earlier today by Mexico’s president for the ailing state-owned oil company Pemex is unlikely to arrest the alarming decline in oil output and prevent yields on Pemex debt... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth rapidly losing momentum The latest figures show that EM export sectors faltered at the end of 2018. Chinese trade numbers for January were surprisingly upbeat, but seasonal effects are probably distorting the real trend. We... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus The implications of slower global growth for EM assets In this Focus, we argue that the bright start to 2019 for most EM assets will not last, as growth in both emerging and advanced economies slows markedly in the next couple of years. Within the EM... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jan. 2019) Our Tracker suggests that the improvement in sentiment towards EMs at the start of this year was accompanied by a pick-up in capital flows in January. It looks like this was concentrated in flows to... 14th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs facing synchronised downturn The slowdown in growth in the emerging world this year is likely to be unusually broad-based. That will set a downbeat mood for EM assets over the course of this year. 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations are little cause for optimism Most EM assets have yet to recover from their sharp falls in 2018, meaning that in many cases their valuations are still much lower than they were a year or so ago. But we wouldn’t interpret that as a... 13th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Where to weather another storm in EM equities We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) equities will prove temporary, as concerns about global growth intensify. We expect the healthcare and consumer staple sectors to be more... 11th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Guedes’ ambitious pension bill, Banxico statements Details of Brazilian Finance Minister Paulo Guedes’ pension reform unveiled this week are impressive, but political realities could yet scupper these plans. Elsewhere, despite the hawkish statement... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lessons from this week’s EM central bank meetings The fall in oil prices and shift in interest rate expectations in the US and Europe seem to have brought EM monetary tightening to an end. While most central banks aren’t in a rush to loosen policy... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jan.) The continued softness of Brazilian inflation last month reinforces Copom’s dovish message delivered in this week’s policy communiqué, and keeps rate hikes off the table for now. Elsewhere, the larger... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Scope for some EM rate cuts even if risk premia rise We expect EM risk premia to rise this year as global growth slows, something which has often been associated with EM central banks raising interest rates. But big currency falls and surges in... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally in EM local currency bonds likely to fizzle out This week’s flurry of EM central bank meetings will probably add to the signs that the shift towards tighter monetary policy in much of the emerging world is nearing an end. Even so, we doubt that the... 5th February 2019 · 1 min read
