Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (June 2024)

The Brazilian central bank kept the Selic rate unchanged at 10.50% and with the headline inflation rate set to rise further in the coming months, we see no room for a resumption of the easing cycle...

19th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: room for interest rate cuts this year is narrowing

The Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today alongside the communications to yesterday’s policy meeting suggest that the easing cycle over the next few quarters will be stop-start...

19th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Currency worries, good news from Argentina

Recent sharp falls in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will add to concerns at their respective central banks. We now expect no further rate cuts in Brazil this year and the risks to our already...

14th June 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (May 2024)

The rise in inflation in Brazil to 3.9% y/y in May and, more importantly, the re-acceleration in underlying core services inflation means we no longer expect a rate cut at the Copom meeting next week...

11th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2024)

Net capital inflows into EMs have climbed back into positive territory in recent weeks, driven by a sharp rise in foreign investors’ purchases of Turkish government debt. This strength could continue...

11th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico’s energy sector at a turning point?

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum’s strong environmental credentials mean that a shift away from fossil fuels and towards renewables is likely during her tenure. We doubt that she’ll fully...

10th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico’s ‘supermajority’ worries, Brazil’s Q1 GDP figures

The prospect of a Morena-led supermajority in Mexico’s congress following Sunday’s election could allow Amlo's proposed constitutional amendments to see the light of day, weakening Mexico’s...

7th June 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

Mexico’s headline inflation rate came in at a weaker-than-expected 4.7% y/y in May but the continued strength of core services inflation means that it is increasingly likely that Banxico will leave...

7th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Attention turns towards the return of La Niña

A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM growth robust in Q1 but disparities persist

Aggregate EM GDP growth remained strong in Q1, though we still expect a slowdown later this year. At a regional level, Emerging Asia will lead the pack, however there are tentative signs that...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q1 2024)

The sharp pick-up in Brazil’s GDP growth to 0.8% q/q in Q1 is a temporary rebound from a weak patch in the second half of last year and doesn’t mark the start of a strong recovery. Still, the pace of...

4th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM manufacturing performance strong but uneven

The EM manufacturing PMI remained at a three-year high in May but the picture is becoming increasingly nuanced at a country level. Meanwhile, the PMIs also showed price pressures rose again last month...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Answering your questions on Mexico’s election

Our initial response to Claudia Sheinbaum’s victory in Mexico’s presidential election can be found here. We also held a Drop-in earlier today. This Update summarises the key points that we discussed...

3rd June 2024 · 7 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico’s Election Result

The ruling Morena candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, is on course to be declared the country’s next (and first female) president after Sunday’s election and the party’s coalition also appears to be on...

3rd June 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Mexico heads to the polls, IMF’s optimism about Brazil

Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday and, while Claudia Sheinbaum appears to be a shoo-in to win the presidency, attention will probably focus on the congressional results which will determine her...

31st May 2024 · 8 mins read