Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Diverging prospects Timely data suggest that April may have been the trough for EM GDP, and activity at an aggregate level should recover – albeit slowly – in the coming months. But this is likely to mask a significant... 29th May 2020 · 11 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Becoming the coronavirus epicentre The coronavirus has continued to spread rapidly across much of the region, with Brazil now registering the most new cases per day of any country in the world. And on a per capita basis, the surge in... 29th May 2020 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lockdowns, infection rates and the EM recovery Large parts of Emerging Asia have controlled the virus exceptionally well, which should allow activity to recover quicker than in most other EMs. In contrast, many countries in Latin America are still... 26th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Covid hotspots, GDP falls, austerity in Ecuador Parts of Latin America are seeing some of the sharpest rises in new coronavirus cases globally, meaning that lockdown measures – and the corresponding hit to activity – are likely to remain in place... 22nd May 2020 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Benefits of sovereign default more compelling than ever Recent reports suggest that governments of some low-income countries are reluctant to restructure debts owed to private creditors for fear of losing market access and pushing up future borrowing costs... 18th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Interpret incoming GDP & CPI data with a pinch of salt With the incoming economic data likely to be less reliable than usual, we think that investors should focus more on the timely low-level activity data and the changing shape of infection curves to... 11th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina jostling with creditors, severe GDP falls This week brought further evidence that Argentina’s government and bondholders remain far apart on a restructuring deal and, unless both sides thrash out something quickly, talks could get bogged down... 7th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom set to cut further, Chile’s CB stays the course The Brazilian central bank’s 75bp cut in the Selic rate last night and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement has prompted us to pencil in a further 50bp of cuts (to 2.50%) in the coming months... 7th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs confirm manufacturing meltdown The drop in the EM manufacturing PMI to 42.7 in April confirms that industry is collapsing in Q2. Even though industry will bounce back in the EMs starting to ease lockdown measures, the weakness of... 4th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The lowdown on EM lockdowns In those EMs that were quick to control their coronavirus outbreaks (South Africa, Poland, Vietnam), lockdowns are being eased which will allow activity to gradually recover. But the damage from... 4th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s political crisis, Pemex troubles While the deluge of depressing economic data has grabbed the headlines in most regions, in Latin America, Brazil's political crisis has taken up the most column inches. Although the crisis has eased a... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Lockdowns easing only in parts of the region The Latin American economies that moved early to contain the coronavirus – Chile, Colombia and Peru – are all now starting to look at ways to ease lockdown measures, which should support a gradual... 1st May 2020 · 11 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Many EMs still have a lot of work to do The good news is that a handful of the early responders to Covid-19, including Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Czech Republic, have successfully flattened their infection curves. As life starts to get... 29th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin American banks: where do the risks lie? Latin American banks are generally in good shape, but the sheer scale of the fall in output and limited policy responses to protect incomes in parts of the region mean that the rise in bad loans could... 29th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Long-lasting economic damage We estimate that aggregate EM GDP will shrink by 4% this year, by far the worst outturn since reliable records began in 1960. The recovery will be fitful, with output at an aggregate level likely to... 28th April 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The economic angle to Brazil’s (latest) political crisis Brazil’s economy is better placed to withstand a twin political and economic crisis than it was during the Dilma impeachment of 2015-16. But the brewing political mess could leave long-lasting damage... 27th April 2020 · 4 mins read
