Emerging Markets Activity Monitor First signs of EM recovery losing steam Our Mobility Trackers suggest that the EM recovery hit a snag in July, partly due to escalating coronavirus cases and tightening restrictions in some EMs (South Africa, Colombia, Hong Kong). This may... 28th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexican pensions, Pemex report, Brazil’s tax reform Mexican President López Obrador’s pension reform will help to alleviate old-age poverty but, by placing the burden for higher contributions squarely with employers, it may lead to greater layoffs and... 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook An uneven recovery An economic recovery is underway across emerging markets, but there are big differences in its speed and strength between regions and countries. China’s economy is making up lost ground rapidly and... 23rd July 2020 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Lagging behind The failure to contain the coronavirus and the small size of fiscal support in some countries mean that Latin America will have the weakest recovery of any region globally. Brazil, Mexico and Colombia... 23rd July 2020 · 25 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Signs of (slow) regional recovery, Chile bond yields Data released this week underscore that Latin America’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis will be among the weakest in the world. One consequence is that monetary conditions will have to... 17th July 2020 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap A closer look at frontier dollar bond issuance A handful of frontier market governments have issued Eurobonds over the past few months, but these could create vulnerabilities further down the line, particularly in Egypt, Ukraine and Bahrain... 14th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina and Ecuador’s debt wrangles, bleak Brazil Recently proposed sovereign debt restructuring deals in Argentina and Ecuador, if they manage to get over the line, would help to shore up confidence and improve government finances over the coming... 10th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What would financial repression look like in EMs? Several EMs in Latin America, as well as South Africa, Nigeria, India and Turkey could use financial repression policies to deal with the legacy of higher public debt burdens resulting from the... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Update More evidence of major fiscal damage After blowing out in April, budget deficits in Latin America remained wide in May. And while a pick-up in economic activity should help tax revenues to recover and social welfare spending to ease over... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the recovery in Latin America The latest surveys and high-frequency data suggest that Latin America’s economic recovery finally started to firm up in June. But it is still lagging other EM regions – and Chile’s recovery is yet to... 6th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Rising unemployment, fiscal damage, USMCA A dig into the recent labour market data shows that the hit has been even worse than the recent surge in headline unemployment rates suggests. With activity only recovering gradually, there will... 3rd July 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for EM inflation? A rebound in fuel inflation will push up headline inflation in most EMs over the coming months, even as food and core price pressures moderate. Alongside the recovery in activity, this means that the... 2nd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs: Manufacturing recovery underway The strong rise in the EM manufacturing PMI from 45.4 in May to 49.6 in June suggests that EM manufacturing is firmly on the road to recovery. We think that the rebound in activity will probably be... 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Will we see a turn to austerity in EMs? Governments in Brazil and South Africa have outlined plans for large multi-year fiscal squeezes from 2021, which will hold back their economic recoveries and are likely to be politically untenable... 30th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fiscal paths, Brazil’s uneven recovery, Argentine GDP Latin American governments have started to outline the direction of fiscal policy from 2021, which support our relatively upbeat view on the prospects for Chile’s recovery. While parts of Brazil’s... 26th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Still grappling with Covid, difficult recovery ahead Policymakers in the region have started to ease lockdowns but, with daily coronavirus cases still trending higher, restrictions are being lifted much more slowly than in most other countries. And... 25th June 2020 · 14 mins read
