Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in...

24th July 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexican inflation in the first half of July, to 5.6% y/y, was driven entirely by a jump in non-core inflation; core inflation fell. Our base case remains that Banxico...

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Brazil using sticking plasters as public finances worsen

The recent sharp deterioration in Brazil’s public finances has forced Finance Minister Fernando Haddad to outline further fiscal tightening measures, but we doubt that the government will do enough to...

23rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Argentina intervenes (again), Q2 shaping up to be weaker

Argentine financial assets sold off this week after Economy Minister Caputo announced that the central bank will start to sell dollars in the parallel market. The plan shows that the government is...

19th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Venezuela’s election: time for change?

The latest polls suggest that the opposition is on track to win Venezuela’s election later this month but President Maduro is likely to do all he can to cling on to power. If he manages to do so...

18th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (July 2024)

EM recoveries have been stronger than expected this year, but growth in aggregate will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer...

18th July 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Food inflation, US tariffs, Colombia’s public finance risks

The raft of June inflation data out this week was not as bad as the rise in the headline rates would suggest, as higher food inflation masked falls in in core inflation. Core inflation appears most...

12th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul. 2024)

Net capital inflows into EMs remained positive over the past month, largely reflecting continued strong inflows into EM bonds, particularly Turkey, while there were outflows post-election in Mexico...

11th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Jun. 2024)

The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate to 4.2% y/y in June was a little softer than expected but the recent weakness in the real and mounting fiscal concerns means that there is no chance that...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The larger-than-expected rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.0% y/y in June, was mainly due to a surge in agricultural inflation; core inflation edged down last month. While there’s still a...

9th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Lula’s attacks threaten more political influence at BCB

Brazil’s President Lula has renewed his attacks on the central bank and high interest rates in recent weeks, raising fears that there could be more political influence on monetary policy from next...

8th July 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Jun. 2024)

The fourth consecutive increase in Chilean inflation, to 4.2% y/y, in June means that interest rates are likely to be left unchanged at 5.75% at the central bank’s meeting at the end of the month. We...

8th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage

The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere...

5th July 2024 · 8 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Colombia: public finance concerns here to stay

The recently-published fiscal plans of Colombia’s government seem to have alleviated some near-term fiscal concerns, but we think the medium-term budget and debt projections are based on rosy...

2nd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Asia continuing to lead EM manufacturing PMIs higher

The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read