Emerging Markets Economics Update The vaccine tide is slowly turning A likely flood of exports from India and China, as well as a ramping up of donations from the US, should help to significantly boost vaccine supply for the many poor EMs in Africa and South and South... 6th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five reasons why Mexico’s recovery will disappoint There are five key headwinds to Mexico’s economy, including high inflation and shortages in the auto sector, which suggest to us that the recovery will disappoint expectations from here. We now... 5th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Aug.) The larger than expected 0.7% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in August suggests that the sector probably knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth in Q3. Persistent shortages of component... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM supply constraints mount Although the emerging market manufacturing PMI ticked up last month, EM industry has been undergoing a slowdown for some time. And the surveys show that supply constraints are mounting, which is... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & Colombia hike but tightening cycles to differ Central banks in Mexico and Colombia raised their policy rates by 25bp yesterday and more rate hikes are in the pipeline in both economies. The pace of tightening will remain gradual in Mexico but... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack External headwinds growing Falling new virus cases and the lifting of restrictions have boosted economies across the region in Q3, but the deteriorating external backdrop will put a lid on growth from here. Even with an orderly... 28th September 2021 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor A strong Q3 for LatAm, weakness in much of Asia The latest data suggest that GDP growth in much of Emerging Asia slowed markedly in Q3, and that the recovery in Emerging Europe lost a bit of steam. Latin American economies generally strengthened... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Have emerging markets vanquished inflation? Low inflation is here to stay in much of the emerging world. However, there is a significant risk that inflation rises, albeit moderately, over the medium term in several countries. This risk isn’t... 27th September 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Evergrande fallout on Lat Am, Peronist infighting Fears over Chinese property giant Evergrande rocked global markets earlier this week and Latin American economies, particularly Chile and Peru, are among the most exposed in the world to problems in... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Sep. 2021) The increase in Brazilian inflation to 10.1% y/y in the middle of September means that another large hike in the Selic rate at the Copom meeting next month is nailed on (we expect a 100bp hike to 7.25... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Lat Am leads the EM tightening cycle Several EM central banks have raised interest rates in the past couple of months on the back of growing inflation concerns (including many in Latin America) and/or strong economic recoveries (parts of... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) The renewed rise in Mexican headline and core inflation in the first two weeks of September, to 5.9% y/y and 4.9% y/y respectively, ensures that Banxico will continue its tightening cycle at its... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Copom keeping its foot on the brakes The statement from yesterday’s Brazilian central bank meeting, at which the Selic rate was raised by 100bp (to 6.25%), made clear that Copom is on the warpath to stop inflation expectations rising... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think China’s equities will continue to struggle Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Drop-In: Evergrande – What are... 22nd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Thinking through how we could be wrong on Evergrande If, contrary to our opinion and the consensus, a collapse of Evergrande ends up having a significant impact on the rest of the world, it will be because it first causes either major financial... 22nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
