Latin America Economics Update A closer look at the latest surveys The latest survey data suggest that GDP growth held up relatively well in Brazil and picked up slightly in Mexico in Q4. In the meantime, Chile’s red-hot recovery is continuing which will keep the... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Supply disruptions weigh on EM industry October’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing sectors in Southeast Asia are recovering from recent Covid waves, but supply constraints are taking their toll on industry in China, Brazil and parts of... 2nd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly BCB in a tight spot, bailout for Pemex? Brazil’s central bank is in a quandary. The market fallout after this week’s 150bp rate hike suggests investors didn’t think it went far enough to quash concerns about fiscal risks and rising... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Recent shifts in EM trade balances likely to reverse The big increases in EM commodity producers’ trade balances this year are likely to go into reverse if, as we expect, the prices of energy and metals fall back. At the same time, the manufacturing... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Prov.) The surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexico’s economy in Q3 was largely driven by lockdown-related disruption to the services sector, which should unwind in Q4 as restrictions have been eased. Even so... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Tighter financial conditions to hold back recoveries Financial conditions in Latin America have tightened sharply this year, most notably in Brazil and Chile, on the back of aggressive monetary tightening and growing political and/or fiscal risks. With... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds set the stage for slower growth The EM recovery is now entering a more difficult phase as the boost from economic re-opening fades, supply shortages bite, growth in China weakens and the terms of trade worsen for major commodity... 28th October 2021 · 26 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: fiscal risks to push Selic rate into double digits The Brazilian central bank’s decision to up the pace of tightening to a 150bp rate hike (which took the Selic rate to 7.75%) was a clear response to concerns about a looser fiscal stance. With fiscal... 28th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM recovery faces mounting headwinds After what appears to have been a strong Q3, we expect recoveries in many EMs to enter a slower phase as re-opening boosts fade and goods shortages bite. 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 2021) The larger-than-expected increase in Brazilian inflation in the middle of October, to 10.3% y/y, alongside the latest rise in inflation expectations mean that Copom is likely to step up the pace of... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile’s constitution, Brazil fiscal worries mounting This week marked the two-year anniversary of the mass protests in Chile which caused a political risk premium to emerge in local financial markets and the currency, and we think that lingering... 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) The further rise in Mexico’s core inflation rate to a 12-year high of 5.1% y/y in the first two weeks of October, which contributed to the rise in the headline rate to 6.1% y/y, will add to the... 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the drivers of EM inflation A big chunk of the recent rise in headline inflation in EMs has been driven by a jump in energy inflation which will be transitory. But core inflation has also risen in parts of Latin America and... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A fresh look at Brazil’s public debt problem Suggestions that Brazil’s government will raise welfare spending – and circumvent the spending cap in doing so – add to the evidence that there’s little appetite for the long-term fiscal squeeze... 20th October 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Best of the recovery now over Easing virus outbreaks and the lifting of restrictions boosted recoveries across Latin America in Q3, but growth looks set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. The re-opening boost will soon fade... 19th October 2021 · 25 mins read
