Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Uneven recoveries across EMs The recovery from the crisis over the course of this year has been uneven, with strong retail spending and industrial output setting the stage for a sharp rebound in the likes of Chile, Colombia and... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM earnings expectations are too optimistic In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we... 14th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Lat Am’s recovery falling behind other EMs The recent batch of GDP figures showed that growth in Latin America as a whole picked up in Q3, but the region’s recovery so far has been one of the weakest in the emerging world. And growth prospects... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s inflation expectations, commodity exports Brazil's central bank made it clear at its meeting this week that it will continue to hike rates aggressively until inflation expectations come down which, based on past form, will occur when actual... 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron not yet swaying EM central banks The latest EM central bank meetings confirmed that policymakers in Emerging Europe and Latin America are still focused on high and rising inflation, rather than any downside risk to the economic... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Oct.) The small 0.6% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in October was helped by a rebound in auto production, suggesting the sector may be starting to turn a corner. However, the risk of further... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Nov.) The slightly softer-than-expected Brazilian inflation figure, of 10.7% y/y, isn’t going to stop Copom from hiking the Selic rate by another 150bp (to 10.75%) when it meets in early February. But it... 10th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation to a 20-year high of 7.4% y/y in November will be a concern for Banxico. But it was partly driven by unfavourable base effects which will soon unwind. And given... 9th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: chunky rate hikes to go on despite recession Brazil’s central bank gave a clear steer that, even though the economy entered recession in Q3 and shows little sign of growth in Q4, it will follow the 150bp hike in the Selic rate yesterday (to 9.25... 9th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) The further rise in Chile’s inflation to 6.7% y/y – the highest rate since late 2008 – will keep pressure on the central bank to deliver further aggressive monetary tightening. We expect another 125bp... 7th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not... 3rd December 2021 · 7 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.) The surprise 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October and weakness in the surveys for last month provide early evidence that the contraction in the economy last quarter may be... 3rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q3 2021) The 0.1% q/q fall in Brazilian GDP in Q3 confirmed that problems in the agricultural and industrial sectors tipped the economy into a technical recession. And with financial conditions tightening, the... 2nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Red-hot Chile set to cool Chile’s economy has been operating above potential for several months but there are signs that activity is starting to cool. And policy tightening, falls in copper prices and the possibility of more... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
