Emerging Markets Economics Update A look ahead to the key EM political events of 2022 In this Update, we take a look at the key political events that are scheduled across the emerging world over the coming year and outline their possible implications for economic policy and growth... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina & the IMF: deal or no deal? Although the Argentine government and the IMF do not fully see eye-to-eye, there have been signs of progress in negotiations and we think it’s most likely that they will sign a fresh agreement within... 12th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Nov.) The disappointing 0.1% m/m fall in Mexican industrial production in November raises the chances that the economy slipped into a recession last quarter. And while auto production looks to have... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to a four-month low of 10.1% y/y in December confirmed that the recent food and energy inflation spikes are starting to unwind. But with the headline rate still far... 11th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: five key calls for 2022 We think that Latin American GDP growth will slow by more than most expect in 2022, while inflation will also drop more a bit more quickly than the consensus anticipates. This feeds into our... 10th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Omicron cases, BCRA hikes, Banxico minutes New virus cases have jumped almost five-fold in Latin America over the past two weeks as the contagious Omicron variant is taking hold, but there are reasons to think that the economic fallout will be... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico & Chile Consumer Prices (Dec.) Inflation in Mexico stabilised at 7.4% y/y in December and, with price pressures likely to remain strong, we expect Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike, to 6.00%, at its meeting in February... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Nov.) The 0.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in November, taken together with the weak surveys for December, suggests that the sector probably knocked 0.1-0.2%-pts off q/q GDP growth in Q4... 6th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Mid-Month CPI (Dec.) The fall in Brazilian inflation, to 10.4% y/y, in mid-December is likely to be followed by further declines in the coming months. Inflation in Mexico edged up in the same period, to 7.45% y/y, but we... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s election: first thoughts on Boric’s victory Gabriel Boric’s victory in Chile’s presidential election is another sign that the country is moving towards greater state intervention in the economy. A radical shift in policymaking seems unlikely... 20th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign investors have been net sellers of EM assets for much of this year and tighter monetary policy in the US and a stronger dollar suggest that the environment for EMs next year will remain... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico starting to act tough on inflation Banxico added to this week’s global central banking bonanza with a surprise 50bp hike, to 5.50%, and the widespread hawkish shift on the Board suggests that policymakers will act more aggressively to... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The Powell pivot and what it means for EMs Yesterday’s Fed meeting confirmed a hawkish shift. Turkey aside, we doubt that this is likely to cause major strains in the balance of payments of most EMs. But the Fed’s hawkish turn may cause... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank takes another hawkish step Chile’s central bank raised its policy rate by another 125bp yesterday, to 4.00%, and the accompanying statement, alongside today’s Monetary Policy Report, suggest that its tightening cycle will be... 15th December 2021 · 3 mins read
