Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The solid 1.2% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in December was partly driven by a strong rise in auto production as global supply shortages eased. However, Omicron-related disruption will... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico: New Governor, same script The second successive 50bp hike by Mexico’s central bank (to 6.00%), in another 4-1 split on the Board, suggests that it is maintaining its hawkish stance under the new Governor Victoria Rodríguez... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Less to Brazil’s investment boom than meets the eye Fixed investment in Brazil rose at one of its fastest rates in the last 50 years in 2021 which, while a positive development, was driven by factors that are unlikely to be sustained. Fixed investment... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Jan.) The fall in Mexican inflation to 7.1% y/y suggests that the headline rate has peaked, but the central bank will remain concerned about rising core inflation. As such, we expect another 50bp rate hike... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Major economies floundering, Brazil’s primary surplus While there were some positive signs from the latest activity data for Brazil and Mexico, both economies seem to have started 2022 on the backfoot. Otherwise, fiscal figures show that Brazil's... 4th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the prospects for EM currencies We expect most emerging market (EM) currencies to struggle, despite their strong start to 2022, as commodity prices fall and the Fed seeks to tighten financial conditions. That said, we think that... 4th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom nears the end of the cycle but still hawkish The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 150bp to 10.75%, made clear that policymakers will slow the pace of tightening from here... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: few signs of green shoots After slipping into a technical recession at the back end of 2021, the latest surveys suggest that Mexico’s economy remains in a weak spot at the start of 2022 owing to Omicron-related disruption. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) A chunky rise in Brazil’s motor vehicle production supported a much stronger-than-expected 2.9% m/m increase in industrial production in December and means that the economy may have just exited from... 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Most EM manufacturers take Omicron in their stride January’s PMIs suggest that, while industry in China, Brazil and Mexico is struggling, manufacturers elsewhere in the emerging world have started 2022 on a solid footing, despite the surge in virus... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The 0.1% q/q fall in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy slipped into a recession over the second half of 2021, and we think growth this year will be weaker than most expect. Despite the... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our Colombia rate forecast The surprisingly hawkish shift on Colombia’s central bank board at Friday’s meeting, when the policy rate was increased by 100bp to 4.00%, suggests that the tightening cycle will be more aggressive... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
