Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s tightening cycle not derailing credit growth Brazil’s central bank has undertaken the most aggressive tightening cycle of any major economy over the past year, but there has been surprisingly little impact on bank lending. And while we do expect... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA (Apr. 2022) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 12.1% y/y in April was driven by a broad based increase in price pressures and supports our view that the central bank’s tightening cycle has further to run. We... 11th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s headline and core inflation in April, to 7.7% y/y and 7.2% y/y respectively, has a bit further to run in the near term. This will prompt Banxico to deliver another 50bp rate hike... 9th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Inflation alarm bells, Amlo seeks price freeze The rise in inflation to multi-decade highs across much of the region in April is clearly worrying policymakers and, this week, Mexico’s government became the latest to announce measures to cushion... 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Copom dialling down the tightening cycle The communications following the Brazilian central bank meeting yesterday, at which the Selic rate was hiked by 100bp (to 12.75%), confirm that the tightening cycle is nearing an end. But even so... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m increase in Brazilian industrial production in March suggests that the sector made a stronger contribution to GDP growth in Q1 than in Q4, and there are signs of further improvement in... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The pick-up in Mexico’s GDP growth to 0.9% q/q last quarter was largely a result of a strong carryover from late 2021, and the economy was weakening sharply heading into Q2. As the headwinds from high... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Apr. 2022) The jump in Brazilian inflation to 12.0% y/y in the middle of April, coming alongside the recent fall in the real, means Copom will almost certainly raise the Selic rate by another 100bp (to 12.75%)... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Activity set to weaken as headwinds mount Many EMs have started the year on a solid footing, but challenging months lie ahead. While high inflation is likely to weigh on consumption, spillovers from lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine... 25th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election race heats up Brazil’s presidential election race has started to take centre stage as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap in the polls with front-runner Lula. Investors’ concerns about a shift to looser... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Slim chance of another 2000s-style boom in EM equities We think that a period of sustained outperformance from emerging market equities relative to those in developed markets – like that which accompanied the last big bull run in commodities in the 2000s... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Apr.) The rise in Mexico’s inflation to 7.7% y/y in the first two weeks of April was driven by a broad based strengthening of price pressures, which will be a concern for the central bank. This, alongside... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
