Latin America Economics Weekly Argentina’s new superministry, Chile minutes The appointment of Sergio Massa as head of Argentina’s newly-created economic “superministry” provides some hope that the government will stick to its latest IMF deal but, even so, meeting the Fund’s... 29th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Prov.) Provisional GDP figures show that Mexico’s economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q in Q2 and we have nudged up our forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.3% (from 1.8% previously). Even so... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Slowdown underway Latin American economies held up well in early part of this year, helped by the surge in commodity prices brought about by the war in Ukraine. But there are signs that activity is now weakening... 27th July 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM risks building as global backdrop worsens EM GDP growth will be weaker than most expect in 2022 and 2023 as China’s economy rebounds only moderately and activity slows elsewhere. Inflation is set to remain elevated for some time yet, and... 26th July 2022 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics EM FX has a bit further to fall; some pockets of greater concern With global economic growth weakening and risk sentiment unlikely to rebound sustainably this year in our view, we think that EM currencies generally will remain under pressure over the next several... 26th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July 2022) The drop in inflation in Brazil to 11.4% y/y in the first half of July provides the first clear sign that inflation has passed its peak and is now on a downwards path. But even so, with the headline... 26th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s trade deficit, Chilean peso’s rollercoaster The somewhat surprising widening of Colombia’s trade deficit in May suggests that the current account deficit isn’t narrowing as we’d expected. This will keep the peso on the backfoot and the central... 22nd July 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jul.) The further rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 8.2% y/y in the first two weeks of July means that Banxico is all but certain to deliver another 75bp hike in interest rates, to 8.50%, at its... 22nd July 2022 · 2 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Assessing contagion risks for EM valuations Even though equity and bond valuations in frontier markets and a few smaller emerging markets (EMs) have fallen sharply, we think the risk of contagion is low and that most EMs will hold up relatively... 21st July 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Commodities boost unwinding High energy and agricultural prices helped to cushion Latin American economies over the first half of the year, but the second half will be much more challenging. As growth slows, fiscal concerns are... 21st July 2022 · 25 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What do rising bond yields mean for EM public debt? The rise in local currency bond yields across the emerging world poses a particular risk to fiscal positions in those EMs with large government financing needs and a short average debt maturity. Egypt... 21st July 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election giveaways, panic stations in Chile The rapid rise in inflation and sharp falls in the peso have clearly spooked Chile’s central bank and we now expect the policy rate to reach 11.0%, from 9.75% now, which puts us on the hawkish side of... 15th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics We think the Mexican peso will fall further We expect the Mexican peso to fall further against the US dollar amid mounting external headwinds. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this FX Markets Update to clients of our Latin... 15th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Inflation near a peak, but little comfort for central banks Inflation rose to multi-decade highs in much of Latin America last month and, while it should peak in Q3, headline rates will remain uncomfortably high for some time. Central banks in the region... 14th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM default risks: more than meets the eye The effects of the pandemic followed by the war in Ukraine have pushed a growing number of EMs into debt distress. And while some (Tunisia, Ghana) look likely to follow Sri Lanka’s path into default... 14th July 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even if inflation eases While we expect upcoming US CPI reports to be more encouraging than June’s one, we still think that the yield of 10-year Treasuries will rise further over the remainder of this year. 13th July 2022 · 6 mins read
